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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd

TSM
$403.41USD↓-2.93%-12.17 today

MARKET CAP

2.18T

P/E (TTM)

2.0x

FWD P/E

3.6x

DAY RANGE

$401 – $413

52W RANGE

$221
$479

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowHigh

Under the Momentum + EPS strategy, TSM is in a Stage 4 decline within its longer-term uptrend. Price trades below the declining 9-EMA, 21-EMA, and 50-DMA and has pulled back into those EMAs, reinforcing bearish medium-term bias. Short-term conditions confirm execution readiness to sell on rejection at the EMA cluster, while the secular uptrend remains intact but secondary to the near-term downtrend.

  • ↑Q1 ’26 sales of $35.9B (+40.6% YoY), full‐year revenue growth >30% expected
  • ↑Gross margin 66.2% and ROE 36.8% reflect high operational efficiency
  • ↓Negative earnings yield and book‐to‐price score imply ~45% overvaluation risk
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) (NYSE: TSM) is the world's largest semiconductor foundry, specializing in advanced process technologies and serving clients in various sectors, including AI, high-performance computing (HPC), automotive, and consumer electronics. As a critical player in the semiconductor value chain, TSMC is primarily focused on producing cutting-edge chips, particularly those utilized in AI applications and advanced technology nodes such as 3nm and 5nm. The company is currently navigating a robust demand landscape largely driven by AI and HPC applications, positioning itself strategically to capitalize on these megatrends.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 ’26 sales of $35.9B (+40.6% YoY), full‐year revenue growth >30% expected
  • ↑Gross margin 66.2% and ROE 36.8% reflect high operational efficiency
  • ↑2026 CAPEX guidance of $52–56B to scale N3/N2 capacity for AI, 5G
  • ↑Arizona fab expansion boosts advanced-node output aligned with demand
  • ↑Analysts from Susquehanna and Barclays raised TSMC price targets recently
  • ↑High profitability, strong growth factors, and positive institutional sentiment

Bear says

  • ↓Negative earnings yield and book‐to‐price score imply ~45% overvaluation risk
  • ↓Ramp-up of N2/N3 fabs to dilute gross margins by ~2–3% initially
  • ↓Tariff and geopolitical uncertainties could disrupt supply chains
  • ↓High stock volatility deters conservative investors during uncertainty
  • ↓Negative liquidity factor raises concerns over trade execution impact
  • ↓Deteriorating quantitative stability score amid elevated capex pressures

Investment themes with TSM

Semiconductors↑ +0.54%

Chips powering modern tech and AI growth

NVDA · TSM · AVGO
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Companies mining bitcoin using specialized hardware

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Networking & Connectivity Infrastructure↑ +0.56%

INTC · CIEN · MU

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 04-29-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We acquired the second land because we need it. We want to build more FABs in Arizona, and this is actually to meet the multi-year demand from our leading edge U.S. customers.
  • We already gained a lot of experience in Arizona. And so now we have much more confidence than last year that we can make good progress and moving aggressively forward.
  • We expect the N3 gross margin to reach and cross the corporate gross margin level in the second half of this year.

Bear points

  • we are very mindful of the impact of rising component prices especially in consumer and price sensitive end market segment.
  • the recent situation in the Middle East also bring further macroeconomic uncertainties.
  • we are very mindful of the impact of rising component prices especially in consumer and price sensitive end market segment.
Read full transcript analysis ›