Applied Optoelectronics Inc

AAOI remains in a distribution phase with lower highs and lower lows under declining EMAs and the 50-day SMA. Medium-term bias is bearish, favoring selling rallies into the 9/20 EMA and 50 SMA zone around $117–123. Short-term conditions are neutral as price hovers near the 200-day SMA support with muted volume and no decisive momentum. The long-term uptrend persists as price holds above the rising 200-day SMA, but a break below that would undermine structural support.

• ↑Q2 2026 revenue surged 86% YoY to $191.9M; Q3 guided at $255–290M
• ↑Adjusted EPS $0.06 beat estimates by $0.04, marking non-GAAP profitability
• ↓GF Valuation suggests shares are ~428% overvalued versus intrinsic value