The case for & against
Bull & Bear analysis
Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (NASDAQ: ABUS) is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections, leveraging proprietary RNA interference (RNAi) technologies. Arbutus is in the process of advancing clinical trials for its lead candidates, Imduceran and AB101, aimed at providing a functional cure for the estimated 250 million people globally suffering from CHB. The company is actively engaging in the competitive landscape of hepatitis therapies, seeking to address significant unmet medical needs and improve functional cure rates that are currently below 5%.
Bull says
- ↑Phase IIa data reveal 33%–67% undetectable HBsAg rates
- ↑$131M cash secures runway through Q4 2026 vs $63–67M burn
- ↑Targeting ≥20% functional cure with combination RNAi therapies
- ↑Moderna settlement boosts financial backing and competitive stance
- ↑High profitability and institutional interest signal positive momentum
- ↑Analyst targets imply meaningful upside potential
Bear says
- ↓Projected $63–67M cash burn in 2024 risks runway
- ↓Litigation vs Moderna/Pfizer due Sep 2025 may distract resources
- ↓Workforce cut 40% raises execution and morale concerns
- ↓Earnings yield negative and analyst revisions weak
- ↓Intense competition from Gilead and others could hinder uptake
- ↓Underperforming size and rate sensitivity factors amplify risk
Investment themes with ABUS
Genetic and drug innovations driving medical breakthroughs
Earnings Call · Q3 2023 · Mgmt. Guidance
Transcript signals
Bull points
- We expect our 2023 net cash burn to range between 90 to 95 million, excluding any proceeds received from our at-the-market offering program.
- Importantly, we believe our cash runway will be sufficient to now fund our operations into the first quarter of 2026.
- Over the last few months, we've optimized our pipeline, including the discontinuation of our coronavirus research programs and our oral RNA destabilizer. This allows us to sharpen our focus and resources on our most promising clinical programs, MDUCERAN and AB101, both of which are expected to have data readouts next year.
Bear points
- During the nine months ended September 30, 2023, we received approximately $26 million of net proceeds from the issuance of common shares under our business at-the-market offering program. These cash inflows were offset by approximately 69 million of cash used in operations.
- we reduced our workforce by 24%. With this reduction in workforce, we will incur a one-time restructuring charge of approximately 1.1 million, that will be recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023.
- we are also announcing today the difficult decision to streamline our organization by reducing our workforce by 24%.