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AEBI

AEBI

AEBI
$12.06USD↑+0.58%+0.07 today

MARKET CAP

935.9M

P/E (TTM)

—

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$12 – $13

52W RANGE

$9
$16

AI Summary

Stalk
Buy NowMedium

The stock just cleared a key consolidation range on strong volume and broke above rising EMAs, with a primary Momentum Breakout pattern signaling continuation. Short-term conditions are favorable for immediate participation as price tracks above the 9/20 EMAs without overbought stress. Medium-term remains buyable under a Stage 2 advance, reinforced by the breakout and bullish pattern implication. The long-term uptrend is intact with the 200-day SMA sloping higher. Key risks include a failure to hold above the $12.57–12.62 zone or a stall at near-term resistance around $12.95.

  • ↑Order intake surged 46% in Q4 2025, building a $1.3 billion backlog.
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA rose 22% YoY to $42 million, driving an 8.5% margin.
  • ↓Leverage ratio forecast to hit ~2.0x by end-2026, heightening financial risk.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Aebi Schmidt Group (NASDAQ:AEBI) operates within the specialized vehicle manufacturing sector, focusing on airport, municipal, and commercial vehicle segments. The company has positioned itself for growth through recent strategic acquisitions, particularly the SHIFT Group, and is leveraging operational efficiencies to enhance its market presence in both North American and European markets. As part of the ongoing demand for sustainable and innovative municipal solutions, Aebi Schmidt is also exploring autonomous technologies to align with future market trends.

Bull says

  • ↑Order intake surged 46% in Q4 2025, building a $1.3 billion backlog.
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA rose 22% YoY to $42 million, driving an 8.5% margin.
  • ↑2026 guidance set at $1.95–2.15 billion in net sales from backlog conversion.
  • ↑SHIFT acquisition delivers over $40 million in cost-synergy run rate.
  • ↑Launch of Klinko 550 sweeper and airport equipment boosts product pipeline.
  • ↑Attractive valuation backed by high earnings yield and strong book-to-price.

Bear says

  • ↓Leverage ratio forecast to hit ~2.0x by end-2026, heightening financial risk.
  • ↓Profitability factors remain weak, pressuring long-term margin conversion.
  • ↓Supply chain bottlenecks and inflation could compress gross margins.
  • ↓Valuation stretched at a 95.5x P/E against fundamental headwinds.
  • ↓Low institutional ownership and limited liquidity may pressure share price.
  • ↓Elevated stock volatility increases downside risk for risk-averse investors.

Earnings Call · Q4 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-16-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • 2025 ended with significant order momentum as we captured many market opportunities following the acquisition of the former shift group.
  • exceptional order performance resulting in a very healthy order backlog of over 1.2 billion, up 21% year over year, and providing good visibility into 2026.
  • Our order intake increased 46% in the fourth quarter versus 2024, and we ended 2025 with a record high order backlog.

Bear points

  • Sales in North America decreased 2% versus the fourth quarter 2024 due to the pronounced weakness in the acquired shift businesses with a 5% decline, which could not be fully compensated by the 2% growth in the legacy of the North American businesses.
  • On the other hand, we expect a continued softness in truck body and commercial markets with only a slow recovery in 2026.
  • Net sales and adjusted EBITDA in Q4 were slightly below the fourth quarter in 2024. This was mainly driven by the softness in walk-in van and truck bodies and included wrap-up expenses for walk-in van production and additional locations.
Read full transcript analysis ›