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AerCap Holdings NV

AerCap Holdings NV

AER
$147.56USD↑+0.87%+1.27 today

MARKET CAP

22.8B

P/E (TTM)

—

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$146 – $148

52W RANGE

$119
$159

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

AER has breached its key support cluster with a decisive support failure and bearish pivot at the EMAs, indicating buyers have capitulated. Short-term momentum is clearly negative as price trades below the 9-, 20-, and 50-day EMAs on rising volume. The medium-term bias shifts bearish following this breakdown, warranting a sell-side engagement now to capture continuation, even though the long-term uptrend remains intact above the 200-day SMA.

  • ↑GAAP net income surged to $3.8B in 2025, driving EPS of $21.30
  • ↑Raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $16.80, reflecting strong demand amid aircraft shortage
  • ↓Elevated jet fuel costs may compress lease revenues and airline margins
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

AerCap Holdings NV (NYSE: AER) is a leading global aviation leasing company specializing in the acquisition, management, and leasing of commercial aircraft and engines. Positioned at the forefront of the aircraft leasing market, AerCap benefits from its extensive portfolio and relationships with airlines worldwide. The company is poised to capitalize on the increasing demand for new technology aircraft amidst a backdrop of supply chain challenges and strong global air travel recovery, solidifying its role in the evolving aviation finance landscape.

Bull says

  • ↑GAAP net income surged to $3.8B in 2025, driving EPS of $21.30
  • ↑Raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $16.80, reflecting strong demand amid aircraft shortage
  • ↑Lease extension rate at 87% demonstrates high customer retention amid OEM delivery delays
  • ↑Returned $2.6B via share buybacks, with over $3B excess capital for deployment
  • ↑Maintains $21B liquidity and 2.1x leverage ratio, supporting growth initiatives
  • ↑Strong earnings yield and momentum factors indicate robust valuation and investor confidence

Bear says

  • ↓Elevated jet fuel costs may compress lease revenues and airline margins
  • ↓Declining analyst revisions suggest potential upside shortfall against guidance
  • ↓Weak balance sheet health raises debt servicing risks as rates climb
  • ↓Geopolitical uncertainties likely to cause volatility in aircraft demand and values
  • ↓High leverage and moderate dividend yield may constrain shareholder returns
  • ↓Softening consumer confidence could reduce air travel demand and lease extensions

Investment themes with AER

Buybacks↑ +0.48%

Companies repurchasing their own shares

C · JCI · WFC
International Value↑ +0.73%

Value-oriented stocks outside domestic markets

HSBA.L · BATS.L · 7203.T

Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-16-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • we've seen a very limited impact of tariffs on our business so far.
  • our leverage ratio is low, it's 2.2 to one. A lot of that is because we got the judgment in June on our insurance case and those funds just came in at the end of June and early July.
  • we extended an all-time high of 99% of the aircraft. That's what speaks to the strength in the market.

Bear points

  • lease rates obviously haven't fully kept up with the cost of debt.
  • If you're one of the tourists, then yeah, you can put money to work whether you'll make any, whether you be successful at it or not is another matter.
  • And as we look out today, Azul is still in bankruptcy. They've been making progress in their restructuring plan. We don't see any impact compared to where we were. So I think minimal impact this quarter from Azul.
Read full transcript analysis ›