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American Financial Group Inc

American Financial Group Inc

AFG
$141.96USD↑+0.22%+0.31 today

MARKET CAP

11.8B

P/E (TTM)

12.2x

FWD P/E

11.2x

DAY RANGE

$141 – $143

52W RANGE

$123
$150

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

Active support failure in Stage 3 distribution and a decisive breakdown below the 9/21/50 EMA cluster signals loss of buyer absorption and favors further downside. Short-term bearish momentum, with price extended below declining EMAs, justifies immediate selling. Medium-term bias remains bearish supported by a Bearish Pivot Point pattern, while the long-term uptrend is still intact. The Growth at Reasonable Price strategy endorses selling into this structural breakdown.

  • ↑Q2 revenue $2.03B, core EPS $2.82 (+32% YoY), beats by 19%.
  • ↑P&C combined ratio 91.5% drove ROE 20.3% and underwriting strength.
  • ↓Negative earnings revisions signal EPS estimate cuts and growth skepticism.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

American Financial Group (AFG) is a leading provider of insurance and investment solutions, primarily focused on the specialty Property and Casualty (P&C) sector. The company operates in a well-established market, delivering high-quality underwriting and strong investment returns. As an entrenched player in the insurance industry, AFG benefits from pricing power and a diverse portfolio that positions it favorably within the broader landscape of financial services. With recent momentum driven by strong underwriting performance and strategic share buybacks, AFG continues to be recognized as a solid investment opportunity amidst ongoing economic fluctuations.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 revenue $2.03B, core EPS $2.82 (+32% YoY), beats by 19%.
  • ↑P&C combined ratio 91.5% drove ROE 20.3% and underwriting strength.
  • ↑$2.51B buybacks since 2010 plus 0.78% dividend yield boosts returns.
  • ↑Upward earnings revisions and positive momentum factors signal price tailwind.
  • ↑Low volatility and manageable leverage reduce downside risk.
  • ↑Potential “variant perception” as analysts temper EPS expectations.

Bear says

  • ↓Negative earnings revisions signal EPS estimate cuts and growth skepticism.
  • ↓Weak growth indicators suggest revenue expansion challenges in competitive P&C market.
  • ↓Mixed institutional flows, including Amundi’s 98% holding cut, add volatility.
  • ↓$150-$155 average price targets and negative liquidity factors limit upside.
  • ↓Price/book at 0.54 amid high earnings forecasts risks valuation stretch.
  • ↓Low institutional ownership and small size factor weaken market influence.

Investment themes with AFG

High Dividend Yield↓ -0.51%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM
L&H Insurance↓ -0.09%

PGR · TRV · ALL
P&C Insurance↓ -0.79%

TRV · CB · AON

Earnings Call · Q3 2023 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 12-03-2024neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • American Financial Group's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call
  • we declared a special cash dividend of $1.50 per share payable on November 22, 2023, to shareholders of record on November 13, 2023. The aggregate amount of this special dividend will be approximately $126 million.
  • For the three months ended September 30, 2023, AFG's growth in book value per share plus dividends was 1.9%, and year-to-date, growth in book value per share plus dividends was 11.9%. Excluding unrealized losses related to fixed maturities, we achieved growth in adjusted book value per share plus dividends of 3.1% during the third quarter and 11.3% year-to-date.

Bear points

  • Third quarter 2023 alternative investment returns were lower in both the multifamily and private equity components of this portfolio.
  • about 4% down
  • pricing is down about 4% year-to-date when you look at our overall workers' comp business.
Read full transcript analysis ›