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/AGL
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agilon health inc

agilon health inc

AGL
$93.79USD↓-2.89%-2.79 today

MARKET CAP

1.6B

P/E (TTM)

—

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$92 – $98

52W RANGE

$7
$133

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

AGL remains in a Stage 3 distribution with price trading below the 9-, 20-, and 50-day EMAs, confirming a bearish medium-term bias. Short-term conditions are neutral, offering no clear sell entry. Sellers should trim into rallies toward the short-term EMA and 50-day SMA resistance zone. A reclaim and acceptance above that zone would negate the bearish outlook.

  • ↑Q2 revenue grew 7% YoY to $1.5B; medical margin turned positive at $197M vs –$53M prior.
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA of $70M in Q2 vs a –$83M loss last year.
  • ↓Negative profitability factor and negative earnings yield raise valuation concerns.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Agilon Health Inc. (NYSE: AGL) is a U.S.-based healthcare company focused on improving primary care for seniors through a value-based care model. The firm partners with community-based primary care physicians to leverage advanced data analytics and operational support, thereby enhancing patient outcomes while managing overall medical costs. Agilon sits at a pivotal junction in the burgeoning value-based care sector, aiming to revolutionize senior healthcare as the U.S. healthcare system increasingly prioritizes quality over quantity.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 revenue grew 7% YoY to $1.5B; medical margin turned positive at $197M vs –$53M prior.
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA of $70M in Q2 vs a –$83M loss last year.
  • ↑Raised full-year 2026 revenue and earnings guidance after robust Q2 results.
  • ↑Cash and marketable securities of $257M supports expansion and strategic initiatives.
  • ↑CHF program deployment cut hospitalization rates, enhancing chronic care performance.
  • ↑Growing shift to value-based care and enhanced data pipelines boost competitive edge.

Bear says

  • ↓Negative profitability factor and negative earnings yield raise valuation concerns.
  • ↓Medicare Advantage membership declined ~12% from 498K to 437K, signaling retention risk.
  • ↓FY2026 medical cost trend forecast ~7% could pressure margins if costs rise further.
  • ↓Execution risk from heavy reliance on enhanced data pipeline for clinical and revenue optimization.
  • ↓Capital allocation tensions between maintaining profitability and funding growth could constrain liquidity.
  • ↓Intensifying competition in value-based care may limit market share gains.

Investment themes with AGL

Recent IPOs↓ -0.74%

Companies that recently went public

SNOW · PLTR · PTON
Demographics: Elderly Care↓ -0.26%

Services and products for aging population

UCB.BR · JNJ · AZN

Earnings Call · Q1 2024 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-07-2025neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • MA membership grew 43% to 523,000 members, while revenue grew 52% to $1.604 billion.
  • Adjusted EBITDA grew 21% to $29 million which was above our guidance. This stronger performance reflects better flow-through of medical margin to gross profit and favorable timing of geographic entry costs.
  • Despite the challenging macro dynamics for MA and our measured approach to growth the health care system continues to accelerate towards value and the demand for our platform among high-quality physician groups like the Class of 25 new partners remain strong.

Bear points

  • low-end of our guidance ranges.
  • like others we were disappointed the final notes for 2025 didn't reflect the rising costs that have been observed across the industry.
  • unfavorable development incurred during the quarter reflects our decision to adopt a cautious approach to our 2023 claims runout.
Read full transcript analysis ›