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AAR Corp

AAR Corp

AIR
$125.48USD↑+0.81%+1.01 today

MARKET CAP

5.1B

P/E (TTM)

27.8x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$124 – $130

52W RANGE

$73
$154

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

AIR's decisive support failure in late August confirms a Stage 4 decline and a bearish medium-term bias, though the long-term uptrend remains intact above the 200-day SMA. Short-term timing is neutral, with rallies into the 9- and 20-day EMAs expected to provide selling opportunities. We will defer selling pressure until price approaches the 129–134 EMA resistance zone before trimming positions.

  • ↑Q4 FY26 record sales of $928M, +26% YoY across all segments
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA rose 27% to $116M, driving 12.5% margin
  • ↓HACO Americas integration causing near-term margin dilution
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR) is a leading provider of aviation aftermarket solutions, specializing in parts supply, repair, and software services tailored to the aviation market. The company successfully navigates the aerospace sector by focusing on both commercial and government clients. AAR is strategically positioned within the value chain, emphasizing operational efficiency and establishing strong long-term contracts to secure its competitive advantage amidst rising demand in aviation repair services and technological advancements such as its TRAX software platform.

Bull says

  • ↑Q4 FY26 record sales of $928M, +26% YoY across all segments
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA rose 27% to $116M, driving 12.5% margin
  • ↑Organic parts distribution growth of 29% YoY, ~10% organic growth forecast
  • ↑Strategic acquisitions (HACO Americas, ADI) integration ahead of schedule
  • ↑Strong momentum and high 13F institutional ownership indicate investor confidence
  • ↑TRAX software platform and long-term contracts support service moat

Bear says

  • ↓HACO Americas integration causing near-term margin dilution
  • ↓Negative profitability factors and downward analyst revisions weigh on outlook
  • ↓Supply chain asset constraints limit parts availability and pressure margins
  • ↓~30% revenue from government contracts exposes budget cut risk
  • ↓Cyclical aerospace spending means economic downturns could hit sales
  • ↓High sensitivity to oil price swings may increase operating costs

Investment themes with AIR

Defense↓ -2.59%

Military equipment and defense contractors

BWXT · RKLB · CRS

Earnings Call · Q4 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-15-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We are extremely proud of the momentum that we have in new parts distribution. We've really emerged as the largest independent provider of new parts distribution. The fact that we have the scale now and this momentum is getting us more and more opportunities with potential OEM partners, and so we really see a lot of space for growth there.
  • in terms of parts growth, that's really where the focus is.
  • Yes, the Delta implementation will occur over a multi-year period, and there are different phases as it ramps up to maturity. But obviously, we're spending a lot of time talking about it because it will be a meaningful single customer addition to TRAX.

Bear points

  • Adjusted EBITDA of $26.7 million was 6% lower than in the same period last year, with adjusted EBITDA margins decreasing to 12% from 13.1%. Fourth quarter adjusted operating income of $23.3 million was also 6% lower than the same period last year, and adjusted operating margins decreased to 10.5% from 11.5%. These decreases were primarily driven by higher costs at our New York component repair facility as we complete the integration and progress toward fully closing it in Q1.
  • the step down in the quarter related to margins and repair and engineering was really all around the closure or the final activities as part of closing the New York facility. So the volume has moved away from that facility into the two Triumph facilities in Kansas and Texas, but the fixed costs remained. So you had stranded costs in the quarter that impacted the margins.
  • In integrated solutions, we have certain near-term headwinds driven by the Department of State cost reduction efforts, which we expect to impact the Iraq aviation operations under our WAAS contract.
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