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Allstate Corp

Allstate Corp

ALL
$253.71USD↑+0.76%+1.92 today

MARKET CAP

64.2B

P/E (TTM)

5.6x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$251 – $255

52W RANGE

$188
$277

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

Price suffered a decisive support failure at around the 255 level with no lower-wick rejection, forming sequential lower highs and lower lows under declining 9- and 20-day EMAs. This confirms a Stage 3 distribution environment and a bearish Medium-Term outlook. Short-Term conditions show price extended below key EMAs with clear follow-through, favoring immediate sell to participate in further downside continuation despite the intact long-term uptrend.

  • ↑Q2 2026 revenue $18.6B (+11.8% YoY); adjusted EPS $8.99 vs $6.06 est.
  • ↑New homeowners policies up 46.8% to 411k; auto policies +2.8% YoY.
  • ↓Shares trade ~2.6% above fair value ($261.41 vs $254.68), prompting correction risk.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) is a leading provider of personal property and casualty insurance in the United States, specializing in auto and homeowner's insurance. The company operates with a strong emphasis on innovative distribution strategies and advanced data analytics, effectively positioning it for sustainable growth in a competitive market. Allstate is leveraging technology to enhance its product offerings and customer engagement, paving the way for a differentiated service in the insurance sector.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 2026 revenue $18.6B (+11.8% YoY); adjusted EPS $8.99 vs $6.06 est.
  • ↑New homeowners policies up 46.8% to 411k; auto policies +2.8% YoY.
  • ↑Protection services contributed $3.4B, enhancing overall customer value.
  • ↑Returned $1.3B to shareholders (incl. $1B buybacks); $2.6B remains in $4B plan.
  • ↑Deploying Connected Customer Cloud and AI to improve underwriting efficiency.
  • ↑High earnings yield and dividend yield; low volatility suggests stability.

Bear says

  • ↓Shares trade ~2.6% above fair value ($261.41 vs $254.68), prompting correction risk.
  • ↓Competitive auto pricing and retention declines may compress future margins.
  • ↓Combined ratio at 86.6 but margin sustainability threatened by pricing actions.
  • ↓Inflation and catastrophe exposures could inflate claims severity and reserves.
  • ↓High leverage may limit financial flexibility during downturns.
  • ↓Negative growth and momentum factors signal constrained expansion ahead.

Investment themes with ALL

High Dividend Yield↓ -0.51%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM
L&H Insurance↓ -0.09%

PGR · TRV · ALL
P&C Insurance↓ -0.79%

TRV · CB · AON

Earnings Call · Q3 2023 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 12-03-2024neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Property-Liability earned premium increased 10% compared to the prior year quarter, driven by higher average premiums which were partially offset by a decline in policies in force.
  • The underlying combined ratio of 96.8 in the quarter and 95.7 year-to-date remains largely consistent with the prior year periods.
  • Our new middle-market product, Custom 360, is now available in nearly 1/3 of the U.S. market and is also contributing to growth.

Bear points

  • New issued applications shown in the middle chart, declined 19.5% compared to the prior year quarter, largely driven by actions to reduce growth in unprofitable states.
  • Allstate brand auto policies in force decreased by 6% in the third quarter compared to the prior year, partially driven by the lower new business and also driven by lower retention due to rate increases.
  • Policies in force in these 4 large states combined decreased by 8.7%, whereas the remaining states declined by 4.7% compared to the prior year through the third quarter.
Read full transcript analysis ›