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Alarm.com Holdings Inc

Alarm.com Holdings Inc

ALRM
$57.56USD↑+0.16%+0.09 today

MARKET CAP

2.8B

P/E (TTM)

19.8x

FWD P/E

19.3x

DAY RANGE

$57 – $58

52W RANGE

$41
$59

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

ALRM is in a Stage 2 markup with a bullish continuation pattern confirmed by higher highs and lows and aligned EMAs. However, price is extended above its EMAs and in overbought territory near recent highs, reducing execution readiness. Medium-term bias remains bullish, but short-term timing is unfavorable. Execution should be deferred, stalking for a pullback into the rising 9- and 20-day EMA support zone for a cleaner entry.

  • ↑Q2 revenue of $277.7M (+9.2% YoY) and adjusted EPS $0.77 beat estimates
  • ↑Raised FY26 revenue guidance to $1.079–1.089B after strong Q2
  • ↓Q2 net income declined to $24.25M, raising efficiency concerns
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALRM) is a leading provider of technology solutions for the residential and commercial security industry. The company offers a broad range of software and hardware products that enable users to monitor and manage their security systems remotely. Amidst the rising trend of smart home automation and increased focus on energy management, Alarm.com is well-positioned within the expanding security technology market, with a focus on SaaS (Software as a Service) solutions driving recurring revenue growth and customer engagement.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 revenue of $277.7M (+9.2% YoY) and adjusted EPS $0.77 beat estimates
  • ↑Raised FY26 revenue guidance to $1.079–1.089B after strong Q2
  • ↑SaaS & license revenue grew 11.1% YoY to $188.8M with ~95% renewal rate
  • ↑New Fire Communicator launch and commercial expansion drive future growth
  • ↑Solid earnings yield and strong quality indicators signal financial stability
  • ↑Manageable leverage and positive liquidity factors enhance balance-sheet strength

Bear says

  • ↓Q2 net income declined to $24.25M, raising efficiency concerns
  • ↓Negative profitability factors reflect challenges converting revenue to profit
  • ↓Negative momentum and volatility suggest poor stock traction
  • ↓High short interest and negative dividend yield may pressure shares
  • ↓Size factor weakness amid growing competition dampens outlook
  • ↓Macro headwinds could curb consumer spending on security systems

Investment themes with ALRM

Software↓ -1.57%

Cloud-based digital tools powering business productivity and innovation

MSFT · ORCL · PLTR

Earnings Call · Q4 2023 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 02-21-2025bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We are pleased to report fourth quarter and full year results that exceeded our expectations.
  • Our SaaS and license revenue in the Q4 was $148.3 million up 10.3% over the last year.
  • We also delivered record adjusted EBITDA and cash flow performance.

Bear points

  • we would have about $70 million of tax payments in 2024 related to the R&D capitalization which frontloads the taxes.
  • we have to be conservative, so probably backing off a little bit on that growth in our guide.
Read full transcript analysis ›