The case for & against
Bull & Bear analysis
Bullish
ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) is a dominant supplier of photolithography equipment for the semiconductor industry, renowned for its cutting-edge Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology that is essential for manufacturing advanced microchips. Among its customers are key players such as TSMC and Intel, positioning ASML in a critical role within the semiconductor value chain. The company operates amid an increasing demand driven by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and data-intensive applications, making it a vital contributor to the industry's evolution.
Bull says
- ↑Q2 net sales reached €9.3B, above the high end of guidance
- ↑Gross margin expanded to 54%, driven by install-base management and upgrades
- ↑EUV system sales to support €43–45B full-year revenue guidance
- ↑Advanced logic-related system sales forecast to grow over 25% in 2026
- ↑Executed €1.1B share buybacks and paid €7.50/share in dividends
- ↑Strong profitability, growth, and momentum factors underpin the bull thesis
Bear says
- ↓China system sales share could decline from 33% to ~20% in 2026
- ↓Negative earnings yield factor and low book-to-price ratio suggest overvaluation
- ↓Customer capex volatility amid geopolitical tensions may drive erratic sales
- ↓Gross margin guidance of 51–53% faces pressure from cost and mix shifts
- ↓Execution risks around high-NA EUV tools could delay product rollouts
- ↓Weak liquidity and balance sheet uncertainties may hamper trading flexibility
Investment themes with ASML
Semiconductors↑ +0.54%
Chips powering modern tech and AI growth
NVDA · TSM · AVGO
Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance
Updated 07-31-2026neutral
Transcript signals
Bull points
- we see basically this increased adoption of UV happening specially with DRAM customers; the trend will be sustained, and we see on the latest node quite a jump on UV layer for some of the customers and the DRAM roadmap is so complex that UV more and more is seen basically as a way to simplify a bit the process flow and to get to the performance needed faster. If we look at the next three, four, five nodes, we see a very positive trend with our DRAM customer.
- In 2025, we expect our advanced customers to add about 30% more EUV capacity compared to 2024.
- With this, we expect install-based management revenue to grow more than 20% over last year.
Bear points
- the bookings for memory were rather low in the quarter, at 16%. But to be honest, that was on the back of a few quarters where the order intake for memory was very high.
- reduced your outlook for EUV revenues from 50% to 30%. That's roughly 1.7 billion euros.
- our customers are more concerned about the terrorist discussion today than they were three months ago. There is no line of sight there in the 232 review.
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