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Axon Enterprise Inc

Axon Enterprise Inc

AXON
$479.34USD↑+0.10%+0.49 today

MARKET CAP

38.9B

P/E (TTM)

315.4x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$473 – $488

52W RANGE

$339
$792

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

AXON remains under strong downside control after breaking decisively below key EMAs and the 50-SMA, with successive lower highs and lows confirming a bearish regime. Although RSI is in extreme oversold territory, momentum has not reversed, suggesting any relief rally may be shallow. Medium-term bias stays bearish; execution should be deferred (Trim) into the 504–513 resistance zone near the short-term EMAs for optimal sell entries on rejection.

  • ↑Q2 revenue $904M (+35% YoY) driven by international and new products.
  • ↑Raised full-year revenue guidance to +32–34%, up 200bps.
  • ↓Negative earnings yield and DCF imply ~14.5% overvaluation.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Axon Enterprise, Inc. (NASDAQ: AXON) is a dominant player in the public safety technology sector, specializing in developing technologies designed to enhance public safety, including electronic weapons, body cameras, and cloud-based evidence management solutions. The company aims to consolidate various tools for law enforcement and safety agencies, ultimately focusing on improving operational efficiency and community trust through innovative technology.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 revenue $904M (+35% YoY) driven by international and new products.
  • ↑Raised full-year revenue guidance to +32–34%, up 200bps.
  • ↑Net revenue retention of 126% highlights strong customer loyalty.
  • ↑AI Era Plan usage surged ~700%, expanding tech adoption.
  • ↑Adjusted gross margin 62.9%, up 130bps via tariff refunds.
  • ↑Low leverage and strong profitability factors support stability.

Bear says

  • ↓Negative earnings yield and DCF imply ~14.5% overvaluation.
  • ↓High price volatility and weak momentum factors signal risk.
  • ↓Rapid scale-up in DDrone exposes supply chain and cost challenges.
  • ↓CEO sold $5.09M in stock, potentially undermining sentiment.
  • ↓Regulatory aversion to AI/surveillance may delay implementations.
  • ↓Rising component costs and tariffs could pressure margins.

Investment themes with AXON

Defense↓ -2.59%

Military equipment and defense contractors

BWXT · RKLB · CRS
Drones↓ -3.18%

Unmanned aerial vehicles and related technology

AVAV · ONDS · RCAT

Earnings Call · Q3 2023 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 12-04-2024bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • we made a decision years ago when we are building records that we were not going to go try to win in RFPs for Record systems because we believe that's a recipe for building bad software. If you go build, you know, 800 checkboxes that all the great on the paper report you submit for the RFP, you're going to build a lot of breadth and there's almost no reward for good user experience.
  • I was going to say it's a great question. We are working really hard to ramp our capacity, but I think you can see from some of the growth numbers and some of what we have been delivering that we're doing a nice job getting our capacity ramped up.
  • We are pleased to report another strong quarter of top-line revenue growth and improving profitability in 2023.

Bear points

  • we still have our 25% adjusted EBITDA margin target out there. So hopefully this year shows that we can deliver and head towards that. And you all believe us that we're going to hit that. But there is a balance to do between here and there.
  • I think, you know, I wrote, I believe, in our shareholder newsletter last year or so. Imagine if we had invested in counter-material drones that we could have provided to the Ukrainians, where those drones would go out with fully autonomous artificial intelligence, not to kill people, to avoid people, but to destroy equipment.
Read full transcript analysis ›