The case for & against
Bull & Bear analysis
BBVA (NYSE: BBVA) is a leading global financial services institution based in Spain, recognized for its emphasis on digital banking and sustainability. As a prominent player in retail and corporate banking, BBVA has a strong presence in key markets including Spain, Mexico, South America, and Turkey. The bank is adept at navigating macroeconomic challenges while focusing on profitable growth through innovation, customer-centric strategies, and sustainable finance initiatives, aiming to drive value and enhance customer experiences.
Bull says
- ↑Record €10.5 bn net profit in 2025, up 4.5% YoY; RoE 19.3%.
- ↑Overall loans rose 16% YoY (Spain +7.8%, Mexico +10%), underpinning NII growth.
- ↑€4 bn share buyback program plus steady dividends drive capital returns.
- ↑Investing in AI-led digital banking to enhance efficiency and customer loyalty.
- ↑Guidance targets ~21% average RoTE for 2025–28 amid solid market forecasts.
- ↑High earnings and dividend yields, plus positive growth/momentum factors signal attractive valuation.
Bear says
- ↓Negative earnings revisions reflect analyst skepticism on future profits.
- ↓Geopolitical tensions in Turkey could impair asset quality and returns.
- ↓NII exposed to rate shifts; spread compression may pressure margins.
- ↓Fintech and neobank competition risks eroding BBVA’s market share.
- ↓Reliance on borrowings elevates leverage risk if markets deteriorate.
- ↓Elevated short interest and cautious factor signals suggest downside risk.
Investment themes with BBVA
Value-oriented stocks outside domestic markets
Banks operating primarily in Europe
Banks operating across multiple countries
Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance
Transcript signals
Bull points
- We incorporated here FRTB, negative impact coming from those. So the regulatory impact number that you are putting is not true.
- the evolution of the portfolio of the grown notes in Mexico actually I think has remained quite solid because it's grown 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, but if you exclude the FX impacts, it really has grown 2% quarter-on-quarter.
- we still have seen solid performance in retail growing 2.9%.
Bear points
- We have talked to you about regulatory impacts for this year, but for the four-year period that we are projecting, we expect some negative regulatory impacts to come along as well.
- we decreased 1.7% quarter on quarter, but again, excluding effects, it really was an increase of 1%.
- The margin compression, because of this, there are many other things that we are doing to help on the margin, but because of this, the margin compression will be moderating and will be stopping. What does that mean? The activity growth that you can achieve, unless, again, there is more decline in the interest rates, will flow to the bottom line.