The case for & against
Bull & Bear analysis
Boralex Inc. (TSX: BLX) operates as a leading renewable energy producer, specializing in the development and operation of hydro, wind, and solar power generation facilities across North America and Europe. The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on increasing demand for sustainable energy solutions, navigating the complex landscape of fluctuating resource availability and regulatory dynamics in the renewable energy sector.
Bull says
- ↑Expanded development pipeline to 8.2 GW, including 450 MW NYSERDA solar deals
- ↑Available liquidity of CAD 811 M funds expansion and operations
- ↑Dividend yield of 0.64% plus share buyback underlines undervaluation
- ↑Total production rose 10% YoY; North American assets led growth
- ↑Favorable US/UK regulations and rising demand support project pipeline
- ↑High earnings yield and solid profitability reinforce valuation case
Bear says
- ↓Short-term PPA prices in France fell, cutting profitability and revenues
- ↓Total debt of CAD 4.4 B (87% project financing) magnifies leverage risk
- ↓Hydro output down 23% YoY highlights weather-driven volatility
- ↓Operating income fell 2% YoY despite a CAD 12 M EBITDA increase
- ↓Regulatory shifts may delay approvals and pressure project timelines
- ↓Weak liquidity factors and low institutional ownership dampen sentiment
Earnings Call · Q4 2024 · Mgmt. Guidance
Transcript signals
Bull points
- We have developed strong expertise and competitive advantages in this region, and we will continue to capitalize on our project pipeline to produce cost-competitive renewable energy at rate of returns in line with our objectives and market expectations.
- During the year 2024, we made good progress on the construction of our Lime Kiln project in Scotland and our APWIT project in Quebec. I'm very pleased to announce that Lime Kiln is connected to the grid after a small delay from the grid operator in Scotland.
- Starting in 2025, we will benefit from increased revenue and cash flow diversification.
Bear points
- overall for fiscal year 2024, combined production was 2% lower than in 2023 and 8% below anticipated production. Wind conditions in France and to a lesser extent in Canada have been weaker than expected for a good part of the year.
- our financial performance in 2024 is below our expectations with a combined operating income of $267 million and a combined EBITDA of $670 million down one person from 2023.
- we have faced some difficulties on-site with one of our contractors, which combined with harsh winter conditions delayed the COD by a few months.