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/CARR
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Carrier Global Corp

Carrier Global Corp

CARR
$57.46USD↑+1.45%+0.82 today

MARKET CAP

47.4B

P/E (TTM)

23.2x

FWD P/E

18.1x

DAY RANGE

$57 – $58

52W RANGE

$50
$77

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

CARR remains in a sustained downtrend with sequential lower highs and lower lows beneath declining EMAs, anchoring a bearish bias across horizons. Medium- and long-term trends are confirmed bearish by price trading below key EMAs and moving averages. Short-term timing favors bearish entries as price rejects rallies into the 9/20 EMA cluster around the mid-50s. We will sell into rallies toward these resistance zones. Key risks include an oversold bounce and a decisive break above the 20-day EMA with follow-through, which would invalidate the bearish stance.

  • ↑Commercial HVAC orders up 65% and data center demand soared 4× YoY in Q2.
  • ↑Raised 2026 sales guidance to ~$23 billion, reflecting confidence in order backlog.
  • ↓Residential HVAC sales expected to drop high-single to double-digit percentages.
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Carrier Global Corporation (NYSE: CARR) is a leading provider in the HVAC, refrigeration, and fire and security solutions market. The company's focus on innovative and sustainable building technologies positions it well within the growing themes of electrification and energy efficiency. With a diverse customer base spanning residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, Carrier is strategically aligned to capitalize on demand in data centers and aftermarket services.

Bull says

  • ↑Commercial HVAC orders up 65% and data center demand soared 4× YoY in Q2.
  • ↑Raised 2026 sales guidance to ~$23 billion, reflecting confidence in order backlog.
  • ↑75F acquisition boosts building management tech for intelligent, autonomous buildings.
  • ↑Aftermarket sales growing mid-to-high single digits, supporting resilient recurring revenue.
  • ↑Returned $640 m in Q2; projected $2 billion free cash flow for fiscal 2026.
  • ↑High earnings revisions and manageable leverage suggest positive re-rating potential.

Bear says

  • ↓Residential HVAC sales expected to drop high-single to double-digit percentages.
  • ↓Ongoing input cost inflation and tariffs to compress operating margins.
  • ↓Inventories rising in CSA residential segment may pressure cash conversion cycles.
  • ↓Reliance on data center backlog execution exposes revenue to delivery risks.
  • ↓HVAC price-fixing lawsuit poses potential financial and reputational liabilities.
  • ↓Weak profitability factors and sensitivity to rising rates could hinder returns.

Investment themes with CARR

High Dividend Yield↓ -0.51%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM
Buybacks↓ -0.29%

Companies repurchasing their own shares

C · JCI · WFC

Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-24-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • the quarter was up 13%. We're up 10% year-to-date. We fully expect to be up double digits again this year. Of course, you know our mantra, double digit forever. So this will be our fifth year in a row.
  • overall, the team's performing well. And the good news is mix and price have been exactly what we thought.
  • We're telling our teams, get out there, go win, go win data centers, go win the others because we have the capacity.

Bear points

  • We really don't see a material impact from 25C-179D. Some of the provisions that were in there, they were, we fundamentally think they were good provisions and they made sense, but they had not been material or very meaningful for us. So them going away is not a material impact.
  • We don't think, I mean, Patrick talked about price by quarter, and I think it's been fairly consistent, so we don't see any kind of material price changes.
  • Yeah, and the only change versus the prior guide really is tariff-related pricing is now $200 million instead of $300 million in the May guide, but the net tariff impact on operating profits remains zero.
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