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Custom Truck One Source Inc

Custom Truck One Source Inc

CTOS
$9.11USD↑+0.77%+0.07 today

MARKET CAP

2.1B

P/E (TTM)

—

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$9 – $9

52W RANGE

$5
$12

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

CTOS has decisively broken its $9.20–$9.72 support on heavy volume, confirming a Stage 4 decline with bearish EMA alignment. Medium- and short-term biases are bearish, favoring continuation to the downside toward the 200-day SMA. Despite extreme oversold conditions, no relief divergence is evident, and any rallies are likely to stall at the broken support or moving average cluster. The failure to reclaim key intermediate resistance levels would maintain the bearish medium-term bias.

  • ↑Q2 revenue $563M (+10% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA $117M (+25%).
  • ↑2026 revenue guidance raised to $2.1–2.2B (8%–13% growth).
  • ↓Negative Profitability score highlights operational inefficiencies and low ROE.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (NYSE: CTOS) is a leading provider of specialized trucks and equipment, primarily serving vital sectors such as transmission and distribution (T&D) and utility markets. Through its two principal segments—Specialty Equipment Rentals (SER) and Specialty Truck Equipment and Manufacturing (STEM)—CTOS is positioned well within a landscape ripe for growth driven by ongoing infrastructure investments and governmental funding. The company is currently capitalizing on what management describes as a "once-in-a-generation transmission demand super cycle," indicating significant potential for future expansion.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 revenue $563M (+10% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA $117M (+25%).
  • ↑2026 revenue guidance raised to $2.1–2.2B (8%–13% growth).
  • ↑Rental fleet utilization at 81.6% (+400bps YoY) shows demand strength.
  • ↑Expected levered free cash flow >$50M with fleet capex $170–200M.
  • ↑High earnings revisions and momentum factors indicate positive sentiment.
  • ↑Secular T&D super cycle backed by IJA/IRA federal funding.

Bear says

  • ↓Negative Profitability score highlights operational inefficiencies and low ROE.
  • ↓Volatility factor of 1.72 suggests potential price swings and investor risk.
  • ↓Dependence on federal funding creates timing risk for order flow.
  • ↓Market saturation risk as utilization peaks may pressure rental yields.
  • ↓Upcoming emissions regulations could increase costs and compress margins.
  • ↓Negative Size and QS scores imply competitive and balance sheet challenges.

Investment themes with CTOS

Buybacks↓ -0.29%

Companies repurchasing their own shares

C · JCI · WFC
Infrastructure Development↓ -1.13%

DE · HWM · TT

Earnings Call · Q1 2024 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-04-2025neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • $240 million of equipment in the quarter, a 15% increase compared to Q1 of last year and a record for the first fiscal quarter
  • we are reaffirming our 2024 revenue guidance for TES, which reflects another year of double-digit revenue growth.
  • Despite some temporary demand weakness in certain utility markets, we continue to be optimistic about the long-term demand drivers in our industry and our ability to deliver strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth

Bear points

  • a decline in average utilization of the rental fleet to just over 73% from almost 84% in Q1 of last year
  • $136 million of revenue in Q1, down from the all time quarterly record of $206 million in Q1 of last year
  • While this all combines to reduce our consolidated revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year
Read full transcript analysis ›