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/DVA
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DaVita Inc

DaVita Inc

DVA
$181.55USD↑+0.12%+0.22 today

MARKET CAP

11.6B

P/E (TTM)

17.0x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$181 – $184

52W RANGE

$101
$247

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

DVA remains in a declining phase below its major moving averages, consolidating around the mid-$180s. The medium-term bias stays bearish given the failure to reclaim the 20-day/50-day EMAs, while short-term timing is neutral until a bounce into the EMA zone or breakdown below the $175–$180 base. We will trim into any bounce toward the 20/50 EMA resistance around $182–$184.

  • ↑Q2 revenue $3.55B (+5.2% YoY) and EPS $4.02 vs. $3.88 est.
  • ↑Treatment volumes +56bps YoY driven by improved mortality rates.
  • ↓Revenue per treatment declined ~$2 sequentially, slicing ~$40M revenue.
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

DaVita Inc. (NYSE:DVA) is a leading provider in the healthcare sector specializing in kidney care services in the United States. The company focuses on delivering high-quality dialysis treatments to patients suffering from end-stage renal disease (ESRD), positioning itself as a critical player amidst a growing demographic of aging individuals and evolving healthcare policies. DaVita is integrating innovative treatment solutions, particularly with expanded hemodialysis technologies, while emphasizing its role in enhancing the kidney transplant ecosystem.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 revenue $3.55B (+5.2% YoY) and EPS $4.02 vs. $3.88 est.
  • ↑Treatment volumes +56bps YoY driven by improved mortality rates.
  • ↑Deploying expanded HD technologies network-wide to enhance treatments.
  • ↑Free cash flow $256M supports buybacks and strategic investments; leverage 3.37x.
  • ↑Analyst targets near $220 and TD Cowen upgraded to Buy.
  • ↑Proactive engagement on Medicare ESRD payment reforms may boost reimbursements.

Bear says

  • ↓Revenue per treatment declined ~$2 sequentially, slicing ~$40M revenue.
  • ↓Competition from smaller chains risks if clinical outcomes slip.
  • ↓High leverage (3.37x EBITDA) raises risk amid reimbursement uncertainty.
  • ↓Negative analyst revision trend and weak growth/profitability factors dent sentiment.
  • ↓Complex proposed ESRD payment changes could lower future rates.
  • ↓Elevated short interest signals investor skepticism and price pressure.

Investment themes with DVA

Buybacks↓ -0.29%

Companies repurchasing their own shares

C · JCI · WFC
Health Care Providers↓ -0.37%

UNH · CVS · HCA
Demographics: Elderly Care↓ -0.50%

Services and products for aging population

UCB.BR · JNJ · AZN

Earnings Call · Q3 2023 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 12-04-2024neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We began the year by making progress earlier than expected across many of our key operating priorities and that momentum has continued into the third quarter.
  • We continue to perform well across our key operating metrics, and also had additional benefit related to seasonality and timing.
  • And we expect to end the year with a census of 1,500 to 2,000 patients higher than the end of 2022. Mortality continues to decline in 2023 in line with our expectations. Assuming these trends continue, we expect to return to positive volume growth in 2024 and beyond.

Bear points

  • wage growth remains above historical trends and exceeds growth in revenue per treatment, but was below our expectations for the quarter.
  • despite the evolving body of evidence about the positive impact of these drugs will have on obesity, diabetes and cardiac disease, we continue to believe that the impact on dialysis volumes will be limited.
  • the positive impact of reduced cardiac event has a much larger population to influence than the effect of timing from slower disease progression.
Read full transcript analysis ›