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Encore Capital Group Inc

Encore Capital Group Inc

ECPG
$98.56USD↑+0.63%+0.62 today

MARKET CAP

2.1B

P/E (TTM)

7.7x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$98 – $101

52W RANGE

$40
$105

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

ECPG remains in a long-term uptrend and a medium-term consolidation, but a recent Bullish Exhaustion pattern signals weakening upside momentum. Price is pulling back into its rising 9 EMA and 21 EMA without rejection, and RSI is neutral. Under the Free Cash Flow + Buybacks strategy, patient entries around the dynamic EMA support zone upon evidence of acceptance are preferred.

  • ↑Q2 revenue $491.9 M (+11.3% YoY) and EPS $2.81 (+13% YoY).
  • ↑Record global collections of $737 M (+13% YoY) via tech-driven improvements.
  • ↓Profitability remains weak; refinancing costs of $30.5 M erode margins.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Encore Capital Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ECPG) is a leading consumer debt purchasing and recovery firm, primarily operating through its Midland Credit Management and Cabot Credit Management divisions. By specializing in the management of charged-off receivables, Encore facilitates financial recovery for consumers, while simultaneously positioning itself strongly within the debt purchasing market. The company's engagement strategies aim to provide consumers with pathways to economic freedom, marking it as a significant player in the evolving landscape of consumer debt recovery, particularly amidst increasing rates of charge-offs which creates valuable acquisition opportunities.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 revenue $491.9 M (+11.3% YoY) and EPS $2.81 (+13% YoY).
  • ↑Record global collections of $737 M (+13% YoY) via tech-driven improvements.
  • ↑Guidance raised to $13.00–$14.00 EPS for FY26 on strong portfolio tailwinds.
  • ↑Plans $1.4–$1.5 B in 2026 portfolio purchases amid high charge-off rates.
  • ↑Institutional stake rising; BlackRock holds $343.2 M, signaling investor confidence.
  • ↑High earnings yield, strong momentum, low leverage, and healthy liquidity.

Bear says

  • ↓Profitability remains weak; refinancing costs of $30.5 M erode margins.
  • ↓Soft growth outlook; negative estimate revisions and organic growth headwinds.
  • ↓Low dividend yield reduces income appeal for long-term investors.
  • ↓Elevated short interest reflects market skepticism and potential volatility.
  • ↓Competitive pressures and uncertain consumer behavior risk margin compression.
  • ↓Weak profitability, soft growth, and muted estimate revisions raise stability concerns.

Investment themes with ECPG

Traditional Consumer Finance↑ +0.82%

FIGR · ECPG · WRLD

Earnings Call · Q4 2024 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 04-27-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Both the fourth quarter and the full year of 2024 for Encore were characterized by record purchasing and strong collections growth.
  • Encore's global ERC at the end of 2024 grew 4% compared to the end of 2023.
  • Importantly, even as we set new records for annual portfolio purchases in the US and globally in 2024, our leverage ratio declined during the year from 2.9 times at the end of 2023 to 2.6 times at the end of 2024, near the midpoint of our target leverage range.

Bear points

  • this cocktail of combinations that actually didn't grow as fast as collections. But I expect over time that gap will close. But I think as long as you have this cocktail, you're going to have a delta between collections and revenue growth.
  • Revenues for the quarter and the year were negatively impacted by changes and recoveries.
  • IT impairment charge of $19 million
Read full transcript analysis ›