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ETSY Inc

ETSY Inc

ETSY
$72.76USD↑+1.63%+1.17 today

MARKET CAP

6.7B

P/E (TTM)

36.7x

FWD P/E

16.3x

DAY RANGE

$72 – $74

52W RANGE

$44
$88

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

ETSY’s long-term uptrend remains intact above the 200-day SMA, but the drop below the 9/20/50 EMAs and the formation of lower highs and lows signals a medium-term bearish posture. A shallow bounce from near-term support has yet to reclaim key moving averages, so selling into rallies around the 9-EMA and 20-EMA region offers the best execution edge while avoiding being caught in a relief run.

  • ↑Q2 GMS rose to $2.6 B (+7.5% YoY), fueling marketplace growth
  • ↑Revenue of $668 M (+6.2% YoY) with 29.2% adjusted EBITDA margin
  • ↓Purchase frequency remains below last year, undermining GMS gains
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Etsy, Inc. (NASDAQ: ETSY) operates a distinctive human-centered marketplace connecting buyers and sellers of unique items. The company is categorically positioned within the e-commerce landscape, focusing primarily on artisanal and handmade goods. With its strategic emphasis on enhancing core marketplace operations, Etsy is adapting its business model to capture a larger share of the evolving e-commerce market, particularly aimed at appealing to younger demographics through innovative channels and partnerships.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 GMS rose to $2.6 B (+7.5% YoY), fueling marketplace growth
  • ↑Revenue of $668 M (+6.2% YoY) with 29.2% adjusted EBITDA margin
  • ↑New $2 B buyback, $250 M repurchased, 81% free cash flow conversion
  • ↑High institutional ownership; BofA upgraded to Buy with $105 target
  • ↑Gen Z/Millennial engagement up 5× via YouTube/TikTok partnerships
  • ↑Strong liquidity and positive growth outlook support expansion

Bear says

  • ↓Purchase frequency remains below last year, undermining GMS gains
  • ↓Negative momentum and analyst revisions point to earnings cuts
  • ↓P/E at 49× vs consensus target $76 suggests overvaluation risk
  • ↓Heavy buybacks may crowd out investments in key growth areas
  • ↓DCF fair values diverge (up to $158.71), reflecting mixed conviction
  • ↓Negative book-to-price and momentum factors signal potential headwinds

Investment themes with ETSY

eTailing↓ -2.18%

Online retail and e-commerce platforms

FIGS · LQDT · CVNA
Buybacks↓ -0.29%

Companies repurchasing their own shares

C · JCI · WFC

Earnings Call · Q1 2024 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-01-2025neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • we find that someone who is an app and user produces about 75% more GMS than somebody who's not an app user, so we think having someone on the app is a really valuable thing.
  • We're always looking at how we can add more benefits in the app to make the app more valuable, to make it richer, so you've seen us do things like have app-only specials and sales or to have a first-on-app like certain deals and drops that are specific to the app.
  • when we compare Etsy to our peers, we find that our penetration on Etsy is lower than many peers, so we think that's a gap that we can close.

Bear points

  • the cushion, the margin of error has gotten a lot narrower, which is why we're very cautiously giving you some giving you some perspective on what we are seeing.
  • We're modestly optimistic because we have really great product and marketing initiatives planned, but the cushion, the margin of error has gotten a lot narrower, which is why we're very cautiously giving you some perspective on what we are seeing.
  • Is that expected -- that 50 basis points expected to continue throughout this year? Is that what's baked in?
Read full transcript analysis ›