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Gevo Inc

Gevo Inc

GEVO
$1.57USD↓-0.63%-0.01 today

MARKET CAP

388.2M

P/E (TTM)

—

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$2 – $2

52W RANGE

$1
$3

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

GEVO remains entrenched in a Stage 4 decline with a clear lower-high/ lower-low sequence under declining EMAs. The recent oversold bounce stalled at the 9- and 21-EMA resistance zone, showing no sustained follow-through and leaving price extended into overhead supply. Medium-term bias is bearish; the optimal posture is to sell into strength at failed tests of these moving averages. Primary risks include a decisive breakout above the EMAs signaling a reversal or the development of a consolidation base that stabilizes price.

  • ↑Insiders bought shares at ~$1.54, signaling confidence.
  • ↑Q2 revenue up 7% YoY to $47M; gross profit $20M (43% margin).
  • ↓Negative earnings yield and weak profitability question viability.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is an emerging company in the renewable energy sector, specializing in low-carbon ethanol and renewable natural gas (RNG). The company is strategically positioned within the value chain of sustainable fuel production, focusing on innovative carbon management strategies to reduce carbon emissions and enhance sustainability. Gevo is actively pursuing growth through its North Dakota facility and leveraging a unique environmental regulatory landscape to expand its market share in low-carbon solutions.

Bull says

  • ↑Insiders bought shares at ~$1.54, signaling confidence.
  • ↑Q2 revenue up 7% YoY to $47M; gross profit $20M (43% margin).
  • ↑Raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guide to >$60M from $30M.
  • ↑CFR approval grants access to >1B gallons annually in Canada.
  • ↑Strong liquidity: $58M cash plus $16M from monetized credits.
  • ↑Commodity exposure and book-to-price ratio suggest upside.

Bear says

  • ↓Negative earnings yield and weak profitability question viability.
  • ↓$176M non-cash impairment booked; cash burn remains elevated.
  • ↓High leverage heightens financial risk in volatile markets.
  • ↓Dependence on $70M of 45Z tax credits creates regulatory risk.
  • ↓Negative momentum and high short interest reflect bearish sentiment.
  • ↓Competition and tech overlap may erode Gevo’s market share.

Investment themes with GEVO

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production↑ +0.54%

Upstream hydrocarbon extraction fueling energy markets

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Earnings Call · Q2 2024 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-17-2025bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • are excited to report that the U.S. Department of Energy loan guarantee process is progressing as expected, and we are targeting a financial close by the end of 2024.
  • At financial close, we expect all of GEVO's cumulative development capital spend to be recovered and then all or a portion of that recovery to be contributed as equity alongside the third party debt and equity funding commitments that are necessary to fully construct and commission the project.
  • During the six months ended June 30th, 2024, we had $26.7 million in cash used in investing activities, comprised of $15.3 million for NZ1 development, $9.9 million in the NZ program modularization, design, and engineering work, $1 million in the RNG project.

Bear points

  • We sold approximately 95,000 MMBTU of RNG during Q2. RNG revenue of 4.3 million for Q2 included RNG sales of 0.1 million, and $4.2 million net proceeds from the sale of environmental attributes related to R&G.
Read full transcript analysis ›