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Warrior Met Coal Inc

Warrior Met Coal Inc

HCC
$97.77USD↓-3.82%-3.88 today

MARKET CAP

5.2B

P/E (TTM)

37.5x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$96 – $103

52W RANGE

$58
$111

AI Summary

Stalk
Buy NowMedium

HCC remains in a Stage 2 advancing regime with bullish long- and medium-term trends. Our Momentum + EPS strategy seeks to buy the shallow pullback into the rising 9 EMA/20 EMA zone. The absence of exhaustion signals and supportive RSI moderating off overbought, combined with price holding above key EMAs, underpins entering now for trend continuation. Key near-term focus is on acceptance of this support region as confirmation for further upside.

  • ↑Q2 revenue $510M (+71% YoY) and net income $87M
  • ↑Generated $103M free cash flow; Blue Creek margins expanded
  • ↓Negative profitability factors indicate weak revenue-to-earnings conversion
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE: HCC) is a dominant player in the metallurgical coal sector, primarily serving the global steel industry. The company has successfully positioned itself in the value chain by producing high-quality met coal, particularly through its Blue Creek operation, which is now generating robust cash flows. Warrior Met Coal’s focus on cash flow generation and shareholder returns highlights its strength amidst the fluctuating dynamics of the coal market.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 revenue $510M (+71% YoY) and net income $87M
  • ↑Generated $103M free cash flow; Blue Creek margins expanded
  • ↑Raised full-year production guidance by 500K tons
  • ↑Attractive valuation with high earnings yield and strong book/price
  • ↑Positive macro sensitivity to lower rates and higher oil prices
  • ↑Committed dividend yield underscores shareholder returns

Bear says

  • ↓Negative profitability factors indicate weak revenue-to-earnings conversion
  • ↓Inflation may raise costs a few dollars per ton, pressuring margins
  • ↓Subdued Chinese steel demand adds pricing volatility
  • ↓Analyst downgrades reflect negative revisions outlook
  • ↓Small size factor and elevated leverage risk pose headwinds
  • ↓Geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains and pricing

Investment themes with HCC

Coal↑ +1.26%

Coal mining and energy production companies

BHP · BTU · ARLP

Earnings Call · Q4 2023 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-07-2025neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We met or exceeded both sales and production volume targets for the year, recording a 34 percent increase in sales volumes and a 21 percent increase in production volumes.
  • Our cash generation from operating activities was exceptionally strong, allowing us to fund a record high amounts of capital expenditures and mine development.
  • We expect that 2023 will be a record year for U.S. exports into India, as well as for exports into Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

Bear points

  • As a quick aside, there is one fourth quarter metric total sales volume that could have been better by 129,000 shore tons had our last two customers' vessels made it to the terminal on time as scheduled.
  • These contracted shipment delays lowered our adjusted EBITDA by approximately $23 million for the fourth quarter.
  • Other revenues, primarily from our gas businesses, were 72% lower in the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily due to a 55% decrease in natural gas prices between the periods.
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