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Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc

Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc

HRTG
$34.58USD↑+0.14%+0.05 today

MARKET CAP

1.0B

P/E (TTM)

5.5x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$34 – $35

52W RANGE

$20
$37

AI Summary

Stalk
Buy NowMedium

HRTG is in a Stage 2 uptrend supported by the Devil’s Bargain continuation pattern, with price tightly consolidating above rising short-term EMAs. Despite overbought conditions, no exhaustion signals are visible, and pullbacks remain shallow and well-supported. The tradable side remains bullish, and current price action favors immediate participation on continuation or shallow retracements into the 9/21 EMA.

  • ↑Q2 net income of $61.7 M (+28.5% YoY) with EPS $2.05 (+32.3%).
  • ↑New business production jumped 46% YoY, fueling premium growth.
  • ↓Current price $32.74 exceeds estimated $31.50 fair value.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: HRTG) is a leading provider of property and casualty insurance, with a focus on residential policies in high-risk areas, particularly Florida. With its strong market presence, Heritage is positioned advantageously in the insurance sector, which often experiences cyclical demand fluctuations. The company's performance is influenced by macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and natural disasters. Its recent growth initiatives suggest a transition towards a more diversified product offering, which could bolster its market share further.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 net income of $61.7 M (+28.5% YoY) with EPS $2.05 (+32.3%).
  • ↑New business production jumped 46% YoY, fueling premium growth.
  • ↑P/E of 4.4x vs industry 11.7x suggests relative undervaluation.
  • ↑Analysts hold a moderate buy consensus with $36.50 target.
  • ↑Golden cross signal and 25% rally highlight technical strength.
  • ↑High earnings yield and low leverage risk support stability.

Bear says

  • ↓Current price $32.74 exceeds estimated $31.50 fair value.
  • ↓Negative earnings estimate revisions signal stagnant sentiment.
  • ↓High hurricane risk in Florida may disrupt future profits.
  • ↓Size factor suggests scalability issues with rapid growth.
  • ↓Elevated short interest reflects bearish investor skepticism.
  • ↓Unfavorable book-to-price metric underscores valuation risk.

Investment themes with HRTG

L&H Insurance↓ -0.09%

PGR · TRV · ALL

Earnings Call · Q3 2023 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 12-03-2024bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Despite challenges in the property insurance space, including social and actual inflation, increased frequency and severity of catastrophic events and rising reinsurance costs, I'm encouraged to report a substantial improvement in our financial position and strides towards sustained profitability.
  • Our third quarter saw a net loss, but with an improvement from the same quarter last year.
  • We've seen a 25.5% increase in average premium per policy year-over-year and a 5.1% increase quarter-over-quarter. Our premiums-in-force are up by 8.4% at $1.3 billion with a reduction in policy count by 13.6%. These improvements signify our meticulous efforts to manage exposures, particularly in personal residential business, while expanding commercial residential business.

Bear points

  • Reinsurance rates are up substantially. So therefore, there still is some need for rate due to the reinsurance increases throughout the portfolio.
  • reinsurance rates are increasing up there.
  • We are seeing a fairly substantial increase in reinsurance in the Hawaiian market, and we're addressing that and have already had discussions with the department over there.
Read full transcript analysis ›