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/KALU
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Kaiser Aluminum Corp

Kaiser Aluminum Corp

KALU
$157.20USD↓-0.77%-1.22 today

MARKET CAP

2.6B

P/E (TTM)

17.1x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$156 – $161

52W RANGE

$73
$200

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowHigh

KALU remains in a pronounced medium-term downtrend, evidenced by persistent lower highs and lower lows beneath falling EMAs. Short-term moving averages have rejected recent rallies, confirming bearish momentum. With no exhaustion visible on oversold readings, the path of least resistance remains lower. Sell-side engagement on bounces into the 9/20/50 EMA confluence is advised.

  • ↑Q2 conversion revenue reached $437 M (+17% YoY) led by aerospace and packaging demand.
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA hit $166 M (+99% YoY), reflecting steep efficiency gains.
  • ↓Leadership change to new CEO may disrupt strategic continuity.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ: KALU) is a leading manufacturer and supplier of aluminum products, with a strong focus on aerospace, automotive, packaging, and general engineering markets. As a dominant player in these sectors, Kaiser leverages its competitive advantages in high-strength aluminum applications and is positioned to capitalize on growing demand driven by increases in aerospace production and resilient packaging needs.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 conversion revenue reached $437 M (+17% YoY) led by aerospace and packaging demand.
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA hit $166 M (+99% YoY), reflecting steep efficiency gains.
  • ↑Analysts lifted normalized EPS to $10 from $8, signaling improving fundamentals.
  • ↑Company forecasts 10–15% revenue growth and 45–55% EBITDA growth; 15–18x P/E vs $169 fair value.
  • ↑Strong earnings yield, positive momentum and manageable 2.1× leverage support upside.
  • ↑Capacity expansions and high-strength applications aim for mid-20% EBITDA margins.

Bear says

  • ↓Leadership change to new CEO may disrupt strategic continuity.
  • ↓Volatile aluminum prices could erode margins as metal tailwinds fade.
  • ↓Negative 13F trends show institutional pullback, weakening sentiment.
  • ↓Planned heavy maintenance in H2 may hinder throughput and efficiency.
  • ↓Debt at ~2.1× leverage limits flexibility if operations falter.
  • ↓High stock volatility and smaller scale versus peers deter conservative investors.

Investment themes with KALU

High Dividend Yield↓ -0.51%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM

Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 07-31-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • demand for our other aerospace and high-strength applications, including business jet, defense, and space, has remained strong.
  • Broader market factors, including reshoring opportunities, continue to create a favorable operating environment in the general engineering end market, driving higher demand and solid pricing for both our long and plate products.
  • We anticipate that 2025 cash tax payments for federal, state, and foreign taxes will be in the $5 to $7 million range.

Bear points

  • automotive conversion revenue of $32 million declined 4% year-over-year on a 15% decrease in shipments, primarily due to tariff-related customer uncertainties affecting the automotive industry. The lower demand has been partially offset by improved pricing and product mix.
  • As such, we are now projecting to generate approximately $50 million to $70 million of free cash flow for the full year of 2025.
  • We do recognize, however, that the broader policy and geopolitical landscape remains fluid. and continues to introduce pockets of volatility in ordering patterns throughout the business.
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