Lumida
/MCY
⌘K
Mercury General Corp

Mercury General Corp

MCY
$102.34USD↓-0.30%-0.31 today

MARKET CAP

5.7B

P/E (TTM)

10.5x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$102 – $104

52W RANGE

$74
$113

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

MCY has formed a lower-highs/lower-lows medium-term structure with price below the 9- and 20-day EMAs and the 50-day SMA, signaling sustained supply and a bearish distribution phase. The long-term uptrend remains intact above the 200-day SMA but does not offset current weakness. Given the negative intermediate pattern and short-term downtrend, an immediate sell at resistance around falling EMAs or the 50-day SMA is warranted.

  • ↑Q2 revenue $1.68B (+14% YoY) and EPS $4.76 beat estimates
  • ↑Net income up 58.3% to $263.5M, signaling strong profit growth
  • ↓Estimated wildfire losses of $1.6–2B pressure surplus and capital ratios
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Mercury General Corporation (NYSE: MCY) is a leading provider of auto and homeowners insurance in California, with a significant share of the market. The company stands out in the competitive landscape for its strong underwriting capabilities and responsiveness to market conditions, particularly in light of recent catastrophic events such as wildfires. As it navigates challenges due to climate-related risks, Mercury General maintains a focus on improving profitability through strategic rate adjustments and operational efficiencies.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 revenue $1.68B (+14% YoY) and EPS $4.76 beat estimates
  • ↑Net income up 58.3% to $263.5M, signaling strong profit growth
  • ↑Combined ratio 89.9% reflects effective underwriting and cost control
  • ↑Quarterly dividend $0.3175 raises yield to 0.68%, sharing capital
  • ↑High earnings yield and strong momentum support value appeal
  • ↑Management expects core earnings to rebuild capital in 2025

Bear says

  • ↓Estimated wildfire losses of $1.6–2B pressure surplus and capital ratios
  • ↓Anticipated moderate hikes in reinsurance costs may cut margins
  • ↓Negative earnings revisions reflect market skepticism on future growth
  • ↓Weak balance sheet quality and elevated catastrophe exposure limit flexibility
  • ↓Small size and low liquidity increase competitive vulnerability
  • ↓High short interest signals bearish investor sentiment and potential volatility

Investment themes with MCY

High Dividend Yield↓ -0.51%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM
L&H Insurance↓ -0.09%

PGR · TRV · ALL
P&C Insurance↓ -0.79%

TRV · CB · AON

Earnings Call · Q4 2024 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-17-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We have paid $800 million to our insureds, primarily for 100% of coverage aid dwelling limits and advances up to $250,000 on contents and advances for additional living expenses.

Bear points

  • We have billed $611 million to our reinsurers and have received, as of this morning, $531 million to date.
Read full transcript analysis ›