Lumida
/MOH
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Molina Healthcare Inc

Molina Healthcare Inc

MOH
$204.23USD↑+1.97%+3.95 today

MARKET CAP

10.7B

P/E (TTM)

67.9x

FWD P/E

27.3x

DAY RANGE

$200 – $205

52W RANGE

$121
$245

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

MOH is carving a medium-term distribution pattern with lower highs and lower lows under the 9/20 EMAs and the 50 SMA, while a short-term relief bounce above the EMAs lacks conviction. The bearish medium-term bias remains intact; execution should focus on trimming into rallies toward the EMA/SMA cluster near 200–204. The long-term downtrend is reinforced by a declining 200 SMA. A sustained break and close above the 50 SMA and 200 SMA with follow-through would invalidate this bearish stance.

  • ↑Strategic contract wins: $6B Florida run-rate premium contract anchors growth pipeline.
  • ↑Membership stabilizing at ~5M with high renewal rates supports revenue.
  • ↓Q2 MCR remains high at 92.2%, straining margins in tough cost environment.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE: MOH) is a significant player in the managed care sector, providing health insurance primarily focused on government-sponsored programs such as Medicaid and Medicare. Specializing in Medicaid services, Molina operates in a challenging regulatory environment, emphasizing affordability and accessible healthcare for low-income populations. The company's growth strategy hinges on securing new contracts and integrating care delivery to navigate rising medical costs and operational challenges effectively.

Bull says

  • ↑Strategic contract wins: $6B Florida run-rate premium contract anchors growth pipeline.
  • ↑Membership stabilizing at ~5M with high renewal rates supports revenue.
  • ↑Guides ≥$5.25 EPS in 2026, anticipating Medicaid margin recovery post-trough.
  • ↑Opportunistic M&A pipeline targets underperforming health plans for accretive expansion.
  • ↑Strong liquidity ($213M cash) and disciplined capital management boost financial health.
  • ↑Positive momentum and size factors signal stability amid market volatility.

Bear says

  • ↓Q2 MCR remains high at 92.2%, straining margins in tough cost environment.
  • ↓Membership now expected to decline 6%, up from prior 2% attrition forecast.
  • ↓Profitability weak: pre-tax margin 1%, Profitability factor indicates unstable returns.
  • ↓Medicaid rates underfunded by ~300–400bps risk future reimbursement cuts.
  • ↓High leverage and negative revisions factor highlight financial fragility ahead.
  • ↓Regulatory uncertainty and underfunding threaten revenue stability across key markets.

Investment themes with MOH

Buybacks↓ -0.29%

Companies repurchasing their own shares

C · JCI · WFC
Health Care Providers↓ -0.37%

UNH · CVS · HCA

Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-16-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We're optimistic about the one-one rate cycle for 2026.
  • I'm expecting about 650 of membership by year end, so just a little bit more than we thought before.
  • With a trend increase from 7% in our original guidance to 11%, we think we have a capture.

Bear points

  • They need to be accommodating on pricing because it's part of a sustaining market.
  • The acuity of the entire marketplace risk pool is higher by 8% year over year, which means on a relative basis, risk adjustment is not going to keep up with the elevated trend.
  • we've increased our trend assumption from 7% that went into pricing to 11% in our forecast.
Read full transcript analysis ›