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Mercury Systems Inc

Mercury Systems Inc

MRCY
$80.61USD↑+0.22%+0.18 today

MARKET CAP

4.8B

P/E (TTM)

—

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$80 – $83

52W RANGE

$65
$128

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

MRCY remains in a Stage 4 markdown with clear lower highs and lower lows, trading below all key EMAs and the 200-day SMA. While the Bearish Exhaustion pattern indicates a possible relief bounce from extreme oversold conditions, the broader downtrend remains intact. Price is extended below EMAs and RSI is deeply oversold, making immediate selling unfavorable. Execution should be deferred—trim into rallies up toward the declining EMA resistance zone (9- and 20-day EMAs). A decisive close back above the 20-day EMA with follow-through volume would invalidate the medium-term bearish bias.

  • ↑Q4 FY26 bookings hit $660M (+93% YoY), backlog $1.9B
  • ↑Q4 revenue $290M (+7.9% YoY), management targets low double-digit growth
  • ↓Negative earnings yield and weak profitability factors threaten returns
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Mercury Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRCY) is a leading provider of advanced technology solutions for the defense and aerospace sectors, specializing in secure processing, signal processing capabilities, and electronic warfare systems. The company occupies a key position in the supply chain of mission-critical military applications, focusing on enhancing technological capabilities in a landscape driven by increasing defense budgets and geopolitical tensions. Mercury's robust order backlog and strategic partnerships, such as its recent collaboration with Palantir for automation, reflect its commitment to operational excellence and innovation.

Bull says

  • ↑Q4 FY26 bookings hit $660M (+93% YoY), backlog $1.9B
  • ↑Q4 revenue $290M (+7.9% YoY), management targets low double-digit growth
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 16.7% via efficiency gains
  • ↑FCF of $29M in Q4 with improved working capital management
  • ↑Palantir partnership to automate planning, boosting margins and throughput
  • ↑Rising global defense budgets and missile defense focus drive demand

Bear says

  • ↓Negative earnings yield and weak profitability factors threaten returns
  • ↓High leverage poses financial risk amid potential rising rates
  • ↓Backlog mix shift to low-margin projects may compress margins
  • ↓Flat revenue guidance in H1 FY27 could dampen investor sentiment
  • ↓Ongoing supply-chain unpredictability risks execution and revenue recognition
  • ↓Negative analyst revisions boost downgrade risk and stock pressure

Investment themes with MRCY

Defense↓ -2.59%

Military equipment and defense contractors

BWXT · RKLB · CRS
Defense Tech↓ -1.40%

LMT · RTX · GD
Drones↓ -3.18%

Unmanned aerial vehicles and related technology

AVAV · ONDS · RCAT

Earnings Call · Q4 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-19-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • increased allocation toward acquisition of technology and capabilities
  • We feel great about those tailwinds.
  • The conversations that we're having with our customers across our business are very positive, as there's interest in additional quantities and looking for ways to accelerate production and capacity.

Bear points

  • You know, I would never say it's impossible for it to go down
  • As a result, we are expecting full year adjusted EBITDA margin approaching mid-teens with low double digit adjusted EBITDA margins in the first half and first quarter margin flat year over year.
  • It's good for free cash flow, but it doesn't help with revenue. It's very little impact on revenue.
Read full transcript analysis ›