National Bank Holdings Corp

NBHC remains in a Stage 4 decline, trading below the 9-, 20-, and 50-day EMAs after a support failure in mid-August. The bearish pattern and inability to reclaim near-term EMAs point to continued downside risk, so we sell now, looking to participate in relief rallies up into the 20-day EMA and 50-day SMA as optimal execution zones. A decisive weekly close above the 20-day EMA would invalidate the bearish bias, while a breakdown below the 200-day SMA would accelerate the decline.

• ↑Q2 net income rose 33% QoQ to $35.3M ($0.78/share)
• ↑Record $927M in loan originations, driving 10% YTD growth
• ↓P/E of 19.5x well above industry average of 12x