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National Cinemedia Inc

National Cinemedia Inc

NCMI
$2.42USD↓-1.63%-0.04 today

MARKET CAP

227.7M

P/E (TTM)

—

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$2 – $3

52W RANGE

$2
$5

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

NCMI is in Stage 2 advancing with sequential higher highs and higher lows and rising EMAs, supporting a medium-term bullish bias. However, a Bullish Exhaustion pattern at new highs, overbought RSI, and elevated Options Score signal short-term exhaustion and warrant deferred entry. The preferred execution is on a pullback into the rising 9/21 EMA zone within the breakout area. The long-term downtrend remains intact until the 200 DMA is reclaimed, so focus remains on tactical timing rather than a full regime shift.

  • ↑Q2 2026 revenue grew 12.7% YoY to $58.4 M, driven by robust ad demand
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA surged 200% YoY to $2.1 M, reflecting operational discipline
  • ↓Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss of $10.5 M highlights ongoing profitability drag
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

National CineMedia, Inc. (NASDAQ: NCMI) is a leading cinema advertising network in the U.S., connecting brands with audiences through its extensive theater network. Positioned within the advertising segment of the cinema industry, NCM utilizes innovative advertising solutions to engage viewers in theaters, office buildings, and residential properties. The company has recently embarked on an expansion journey with the acquisition of Captivate, aiming to enhance its market presence and solidify its position in the growing digital out-of-home advertising landscape.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 2026 revenue grew 12.7% YoY to $58.4 M, driven by robust ad demand
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA surged 200% YoY to $2.1 M, reflecting operational discipline
  • ↑Local ad revenue jumped 48% YoY to $9.5 M, boosting regional growth
  • ↑Captivate acquisition expands network to 48 K screens and drives $3.5 M synergies
  • ↑Attendance rose 19.3% YoY, strengthening advertiser audience engagement
  • ↑High earnings yield and book-to-price ratio underscore value appeal

Bear says

  • ↓Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss of $10.5 M highlights ongoing profitability drag
  • ↓Net leverage of ~3.9× raises debt servicing and liquidity risks
  • ↓Programmatic ad reliance heightens revenue volatility tied to film slate
  • ↓Shift of ad budgets toward digital could compress cinema ad yields
  • ↓Negative profitability and revision factors dampen earnings outlook
  • ↓Smaller size factor limits market influence and access to capital

Investment themes with NCMI

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Earnings Call · Q1 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-24-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • NCM is well positioned to win as the leading platform in cinema advertising with an unmatched competitive edge, attractive industry tailwinds, a premium audience, end product, and a robust financial position.
  • Kicking off the second quarter, a Minecraft movie delivered the largest opening day of the year thus far and set a record for the largest debut ever for a video game feature.
  • The remainder of the quarter is expected to benefit from a stronger lineup of releases across a wide range of genres, including highly anticipated titles such as Mission Impossible The Final Reckoning, Ballerina, and How to Train Your Dragons.

Bear points

  • $1.4 billion, representing an 11.6% decline compared to the same period last year.
  • NCM's first quarter 2025 total revenue was $34.9 million within our guidance range. The 7% year-over-year decline reflects the slower first quarter at the box office and an expected degree of advertiser uncertainty regarding tariffs.
  • Adjusted OIBDA was negative $9 million, in line with our guidance, and primarily driven by reduced theater attendance and the impact to the top line.
Read full transcript analysis ›