The case for & against
Bull & Bear analysis
NASDAQ, Inc. (NASDAQ: NDAQ) is a dominant player in the global financial technology and capital markets space, recognized for operating one of the largest and most advanced stock exchanges in the world. The company provides a comprehensive suite of market infrastructure services, including trading, clearing, and settlement functions, as well as innovative technology solutions aimed at enhancing investor access and operational efficiency across financial services. NASDAQ is notably focusing on digital assets, AI integration, and modernization of financial services, aligning its strategic initiatives with emerging market trends.
Bull says
- ↑Net revenue +15% YoY to $1.5B in Q2 2026
- ↑Targeting $100M in expense efficiencies via AI by 2027
- ↑15 new IPOs raised $5B in Q1, bolstering listing franchise
- ↑Generated $629M free cash flow in Q1 2026 for buybacks
- ↑ARR grew 12% YoY to $3.3B, signaling recurring demand
- ↑Positive analyst revisions and large size factor signal resilience
Bear says
- ↓Negative earnings yield and low book-to-price indicate high valuation
- ↓Macro and regulatory uncertainty may slow new market sales
- ↓Opex rose 10% YoY to $641M, risking margin compression
- ↓AI integration execution risk could drive cost overruns
- ↓Intensifying fintech competition may pressure NASDAQ’s market share
- ↓Weak profitability and momentum factors signal potential downtrend
Investment themes with NDAQ
Companies paying above-average dividends
Debt and equity trading fueling economic growth
Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance
Transcript signals
Bull points
- In the second quarter of 2025, NASDAQ delivered one of our strongest quarters on record with 24% EPS growth, underscoring the durability of the model and the consistency of our execution.
- we reported net revenue of $1.3 billion up 12%, with solutions revenue of $991 million up 10%.
- This resulted in net income of $492 million and diluted EPS of 85 cents, up 24%.
Bear points
- It will be market-dependent. And as you all know, that also kind of tends to have a little bit of a lag because we don't recognize all the initial listing fees up front.
- given some of the pauses we had in some of the conversations, that did elongate some of the sales cycles, and that will ultimately take a little bit of time to flow through. And also, we think it's a little too early to tell whether or not this will have a meaningful impact on the full year. So as we said, we're maintaining general consistency in the way that we're considering both the divisional and subdivisional growth rates for the year.