The case for & against
Bull & Bear analysis
Nomura Holdings (NYSE: NMR) is a leading global financial services group based in Japan, providing a diverse range of services including investment banking, asset management, wholesale banking, and wealth management. The firm is strategically positioned to capitalize on the growing domestic financial market while also expanding its international footprint. Notably, it is navigating a landscape marked by evolving investor preferences, particularly a shift from savings to investment, and has embarked on initiatives to enhance its customer engagement and service offerings.
Bull says
- ↑Q4 FY2026 net income reached record ¥362.1B, up 6% YoY.
- ↑Wealth management income before taxes rose 23% YoY on record recurring inflows.
- ↑AUM surged over 50% to ¥137T, stabilizing fee revenue base.
- ↑Share buyback launched; dividend yield 1.07% supports returns.
- ↑ROE achieved 10.1% target; balance sheet strength rated excellent.
- ↑High momentum and positive earnings revisions signal potential upside.
Bear says
- ↓Investment management IBT fell 20% QoQ, reflecting market volatility.
- ↓Group expenses rose 13% due to higher IT costs and bonuses.
- ↓Phishing scams cost ¥4.8B, pressuring profits and brand trust.
- ↓Negative profitability and earnings yield factors raise return concerns.
- ↓Liquidity factor is weak, indicating potential short-term funding risk.
- ↓Geopolitical uncertainty and market swings threaten revenue predictability.
Investment themes with NMR
Export-driven economy with advanced technology and manufacturing
Debt and equity trading fueling economic growth
Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance
Transcript signals
Bull points
- Group net revenue came in at 5 to 3.3 billion yen, up 16% over last quarter. Income before income taxes grew 64% to 160%. was 104.6 billion yen, an increase of 45% compared with last quarter.
- Wealth management first quarter net revenue increased 6% to 105.8 billion yen and income before income taxes rose 8% to 38.8 billion yen. Despite the stock market's sharp decline in April, the provision of consulting services tailored to clients' needs resulted in an increase in primary bond sales and secondary stock transactions that captured market fluctuation.
- recurring revenue assets saw a net inflow for the 13th consecutive quarter at 278.9 billion yen. Meanwhile, as shown on the top right, recurring revenue declined versus the previous quarter.
Bear points
- The introduction of reciprocal tariffs for the United States and increase in geopolitical risk led to an uncertain market environment,
- these etfs outflows are presumed to be due to selling by certain investors individuals waiting to reinvest and profit taking
- Net revenue was 37.9 billion yen, down 27% from the previous quarter when performance was particularly favorable.