Lumida
/PAX
⌘K
Patria Investments Ltd

Patria Investments Ltd

PAX
$10.62USD↓-1.21%-0.13 today

MARKET CAP

1.7B

P/E (TTM)

9.5x

FWD P/E

7.2x

DAY RANGE

$11 – $11

52W RANGE

$11
$18

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowHigh

The technical structure remains decisively bearish across both intermediate and long-term horizons, with EMAs aligned lower and supply outweighing demand. Price sits at 52-week lows and below declining short-term EMAs, indicating further downside pressure. Given the bearish momentum and absence of reversal signals, execution favors immediate sell participation into any rally.

  • ↑Q4 fundraising hit $7.7B vs $6B target, reflecting strong demand
  • ↑Fee-earning AUM grew 24% YoY to $41B, expanding fee base
  • ↓No performance fees expected from Private Active Fund 4, denting profits
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Patria Investments Limited (NASDAQ: PAX) is a leading alternative asset manager based in Latin America, specializing in private equity, credit, infrastructure, and real estate investments. The firm has positioned itself at the forefront of the evolving investment landscape by navigating macroeconomic challenges and strategically expanding its capital base. Patria capitalizes on favorable market conditions and investor interest in diverse asset classes, establishing a solid reputation for managing assets in the growing Latin American market.

Bull says

  • ↑Q4 fundraising hit $7.7B vs $6B target, reflecting strong demand
  • ↑Fee-earning AUM grew 24% YoY to $41B, expanding fee base
  • ↑Fee-related earnings up 19% to $203M; revenue $344M (+14% YoY)
  • ↑Acquired 51% of Solace, boosting private credit capabilities
  • ↑Committed $100M dividend and up to 7M share buybacks
  • ↑High earnings and dividend yields with manageable leverage

Bear says

  • ↓No performance fees expected from Private Active Fund 4, denting profits
  • ↓About 70% of fee-earning AUM tied to performance, risking earnings swings
  • ↓2026 FRE margin guidance set below 58%–60%, signaling caution
  • ↓Elevated transaction costs (~$20M/quarter) pressuring margins
  • ↓Geopolitical uncertainty in Brazil may hamper fundraising
  • ↓Underlying balance sheet vulnerabilities and high valuation volatility

Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-18-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • In the second quarter, we made continued progress leveraging and expanding the diversified platform we have built the past several years as fundraising was a solid $1.3 billion in the quarter, led by our credits, infrastructure, real estate, and GPMS, Global Private Market Solutions, businesses.
  • total fundraising over the first half of the year reached approximately $4.5 billion, 75% of our original $6 billion target for 2025.
  • we generated over $600 million of organic net inflows into fee-earning AUM in the second quarter of 2025, $1.3 billion over the first half of this year, and $2.4 billion over the last 12 months.

Bear points

  • The net accrued performance fee balance of $394 million, or $2.47 per share, rose approximately 7% from the first quarter of this year, mainly due to the depreciation of the dollar.
  • the strong growth reflects a combination of solid net organic inflows as well as the positive contribution from strong investment performance and asset movement due to depreciating U.S. dollars.
  • we generated $38.8 million of distributive earnings, up 15% year-over-year, and over 5% sequentially, mainly reflecting higher FRE, partially offset by higher net financial interest and expense and higher debt.
Read full transcript analysis ›