The case for & against
Bull & Bear analysis
Bullish
PotlatchDeltic Corporation (NASDAQ: PCH) is a leading integrated land resource company involved in timberlands, wood products, and real estate. Following its recent merger with Rayonier, the company boasts nearly 4.2 million acres of timberland and has diversified into renewable energy solutions. Positioned in the sustainable forestry sector, PotlatchDeltic focuses on capitalizing on increasing demand for housing and natural climate solutions.
Bull says
- ↑Q3 adjusted EBITDA rose to $89M from $52M in Q2.
- ↑Real estate EBITDA rose to $63M in Q3 on rural sales.
- ↑Share repurchases totaled $56M in Q2, reflecting disciplined capital return.
- ↑Solar portfolio expands to 40–45k acres with ~$550M NPV.
- ↑Liquidity at $388M ensures flexibility amid market uncertainties.
- ↑Lumber prices seen rising ~$50/MBF by Q4 2025.
Bear says
- ↓Wood products lost $2M in Q3 due to lower lumber prices.
- ↓Average lumber price fell 12% to $396/MBF in Q3.
- ↓232 tariffs and Canadian duties sustain pricing volatility risk.
- ↓High mortgage rates keep homebuying subdued, weakening housing demand.
- ↓Waldo sawmill modernization may incur unexpected costs, hurting margins.
- ↓Real estate may underperform if rural demand reverses.
Earnings Call · Q3 2024 · Mgmt. Guidance
Updated 09-11-2026neutral
Transcript signals
Bull points
- We continue to see strong demand for rural land as reflected in our third quarter performance by selling over 6,500 acres for an average of $3,700 per acre.
- We anticipate northern saw log prices to increase 2% to 3% in the fourth quarter, reflecting slightly higher index saw log prices.
- Yesterday, after the market closed, we reported third quarter total adjusted EBITDA of $46 million. These are solid results given the challenging lumber markets and the macroeconomic environment we are operating in.
Bear points
- total adjusted EBITDA was $46 million in the third quarter compared to $103 million in the second quarter. The 34,000-acre sale to FIA for four-year-old average-age southern timberland completed in the second quarter drove the quarter-over-quarter decline in EBITDA.
- Adjusted EBITDA loss widened from $7 million in the second quarter to $10 million in the third quarter. The decline was driven by lower average lumber prices led by softness in Southern Yellow Pine.
- EBITDA generated by rural sales was lower in the third quarter as the second quarter included the 34,000 acre southern land transaction for $57 million.
Read full transcript analysis ›