The case for & against
Bull & Bear analysis
Bearish
Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE: SCCO) is a leading copper producer with a comprehensive portfolio of operations across Mexico and Peru. The company focuses on the extraction and production of copper and its by-products, including molybdenum, silver, and zinc. Southern Copper's robust operational capabilities enable it to capitalize on the growing global demand for copper driven by electrification and sustainability initiatives, positioning it strategically within the materials sector.
Bull says
- ↑Net sales $13.4B (+17% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA $7.8B (+22% YoY).
- ↑Net income $4.3B (+28% YoY) strengthens cash flow.
- ↑320k-ton 2026 copper deficit driven by EV and infrastructure demand.
- ↑Over $20.5B CapEx through 2030; $1.3B spent in 2025.
- ↑Record silver output 24M oz (+15% YoY) boosts by-product margins.
- ↑Strong profitability and positive momentum trends underpin growth.
Bear says
- ↓Current price $194.89 vs. fair value $167.79 signals 20% overvaluation.
- ↓2026 copper output forecast at 911k tons, down 4.7% YoY.
- ↓High short interest reflects bearish investor sentiment.
- ↓Analyst downgrades and negative earnings revisions cloud outlook.
- ↓Illegal mining and regulatory scrutiny threaten project timelines.
- ↓Negative liquidity constraints may limit financial flexibility.
Investment themes with SCCO
High Dividend Yield↓ -0.51%
Companies paying above-average dividends
AVGO · JPM · XOM
Copper Miners↑ +0.94%
5713.T · BOL.ST · KGH.WA
Earnings Call · Q4 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance
Updated 08-18-2026neutral
Transcript signals
Bull points
- Our performance in year 2025 delivered new company records for net sales, adjusted EBITDA and net income. These milestones are a testament to the strength of our strategy, execution and commitment to sustainable growth.
- The combination of higher production volumes and better copper and by-product prices enabled us to achieve record sales of $13.4 billion. This is 17% more than in 2024, a record high for EBITDA of $7.8 billion, that's 22% on top of 2024 and net income of $4.3 billion, which is 28% higher than 2024.
- Copper inventories worldwide, the sum of the London Metal Exchange, COMEX and Shanghai and bonded warehouses, where as of January '26, this past Monday, approximately 14 days of global demand.
Bear points
- For 2025, copper production decreased 1.8% to 956,270 tons. This figure is 1% lower than our 2025 plan of 965,000 tons. Our year-on-year result reflects lower production at our Buenavista and the Peruvian mines, partially offset by a rise in production at our IMMSA and La Caridad mines.
- For 2026, we expect to produce 911,400 tons of copper, which represents a decrease of 4.7% compared to 2025 annual trend. This slight drop was primarily attributable to lower ore grades at our Peruvian operations.
- Operating cost. Our total operating cost and expenses increased $282 million, that is a 19% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. The main cost increments were in workers' participation, purchased copper, inventory consumption and operation contractors and services.
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