Lumida
/SMG
⌘K
Scotts Miracle-Gro Co

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co

SMG
$56.47USD↑+0.55%+0.31 today

MARKET CAP

3.3B

P/E (TTM)

31.0x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$56 – $57

52W RANGE

$52
$75

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

SMG is in a medium-term bearish repair phase with clear lower highs and lower lows, reinforced by the bearish pivot point. Price is extended below short EMAs in extreme oversold territory, suggesting caution on fresh shorts and potential short-covering bounces. Valuations (low P/E and strong FCF yield) provide support, but structural momentum remains negative. Execution favors selling into any near-term rallies around the 9/20 EMA zone while trimming positions on failed rallies. A sustained reclaim and close above the 50-day SMA would invalidate the current bearish posture.

  • ↑Reaffirmed FY26 guidance: low single-digit U.S. net sales growth, gross margin ≥32%.
  • ↑Online POS unit sales rose 54%, making e-commerce 13% of total, boosting revenue mix.
  • ↓Anticipated $15M commodity cost increase could compress gross margins.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (NYSE: SMG) is a leading provider of branded consumer lawn and garden products, including fertilizers, soils, and plant care solutions. The company operates in a competitive landscape characterized by private label entries and changing consumer demands, leveraging its strong brand portfolio to capture market share. Currently, Scotts is executing the SMG 2.0 strategy, focusing on digital transformation and the expansion of e-commerce to drive higher-margin sales. The company positions itself within a broader theme of sustainability and organic gardening as consumer preferences shift towards environmentally-friendly products.

Bull says

  • ↑Reaffirmed FY26 guidance: low single-digit U.S. net sales growth, gross margin ≥32%.
  • ↑Online POS unit sales rose 54%, making e-commerce 13% of total, boosting revenue mix.
  • ↑GAAP gross margin improved to 35.7%, up 1.3% YoY, driven by branded products.
  • ↑Shares trade at $62 vs. $75.50 fair value, implying ~18% upside.
  • ↑Announced $500M–$1B buyback plus $0.66 quarterly dividend, targeting leverage <4x.
  • ↑Strong earnings yield and high profitability indicate robust return potential.

Bear says

  • ↓Anticipated $15M commodity cost increase could compress gross margins.
  • ↓Negative growth and revisions scores indicate analyst-expected performance decline.
  • ↓Leverage near 2.0 signals reliance on debt, raising balance sheet risk.
  • ↓Inflation-driven price hikes risk consumer pushback, eroding market share.
  • ↓Rising private-label competition threatens brand loyalty and profit margins.
  • ↓Negative book-to-price ratio flags potential overvaluation relative to assets.

Investment themes with SMG

High Dividend Yield↓ -0.51%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM
Agriculture↓ -0.18%

Farming, crop production, and global food supply

DE · CTVA · ADM

Earnings Call · Q3 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-17-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • most of our retailers are spending more than that pushing our products and pushing along the garden.
  • So we've been able to over deliver a year to date on our gross margin, including those 75 million to savings.
  • I would say that the team on the sale side is working hard on those pricing and programs and will provide you more color at your end. I can definitely tell you as well, the supply chain team, we have a long history and track record of delivering at least 1% of cost outs in our business.

Bear points

  • I view them to be margin accretive.
  • Hawthorne net sales were $31 million, down from $68 million in the prior year but roughly flat to last quarter. -to-date through Q3, Hawthorne net sales were $116 million versus $214 million a year ago.
  • The decline is attributable to the lower Hawthorne sales, combined with the non-recurring AeroGarden and bulk raw material sales for fiscal 2024.
Read full transcript analysis ›