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STUB

STUB

STUB
$6.03USD↑+1.34%+0.08 today

MARKET CAP

2.3B

P/E (TTM)

—

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$6 – $6

52W RANGE

$6
$28

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

STUB remains entrenched in a medium-term downtrend under Stage 3, with sequential lower highs and lower lows driving price below all key moving averages. Although the asset is oversold and nearing a prior support zone, there is no clear evidence of exhaustion or a structural reversal. Price is currently below the declining 9- and 20-day EMAs, defining a tactical zone for trimming into any relief rallies toward those levels. A sustained close and follow-through above the 20-day EMA would invalidate this bearish posture.

  • ↑Q2 GMS reached $3.1B, a 34% YoY increase led by World Cup demand.
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA climbed 94% to $106M, yielding an 18% margin and $598M FCF.
  • ↓Profit margins remain pressured, with negative profitability and adverse earnings yield.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

StubHub Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: STUB) is a leading online marketplace specializing in the resale of tickets for various live events, including concerts, sporting events, and theatrical performances. The company operates in over 200 countries, leveraging a network of over 1 million sellers that connect with millions of fans worldwide. Positioned within the growing live entertainment ecosystem, StubHub capitalizes on the increasing demand for event attendance and has cemented its market leadership, particularly in North America, where it holds approximately 50% market share. The company is navigating both opportunities and challenges as it invests in technology to enhance user experiences and prepare for future growth, particularly around upcoming major events and direct ticket issuance strategies.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 GMS reached $3.1B, a 34% YoY increase led by World Cup demand.
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA climbed 94% to $106M, yielding an 18% margin and $598M FCF.
  • ↑High liquidity (score 2.79) underpins strategic investments in tech and expansion.
  • ↑International sales now outpacing North America, signaling strong global adoption.
  • ↑Direct ticket issuance technology offers transformational revenue diversification potential.
  • ↑Attractive valuation supported by high Book-to-Price ratio and 0.26% dividend yield.

Bear says

  • ↓Profit margins remain pressured, with negative profitability and adverse earnings yield.
  • ↓Net leverage at 3x EBITDA and elevated debt risk financial flexibility.
  • ↓Regulatory shifts on ticket caps could raise compliance costs and curb pricing.
  • ↓Advertising model still in testing, contributing minimal revenue amid weak momentum.
  • ↓Post-World Cup downgrades and share-price drop reflect investor sentiment risk.
  • ↓Limited institutional buying; low 13F ownership signals skepticism on growth sustainability.

Earnings Call · Q3 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-17-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Our GMS reached $2.4 billion in the third quarter, representing 11% growth from the prior year period. This performance demonstrates the fundamental strength of our marketplace, even as we navigated the anticipated impact at the federally mandated Olin pricing in the United States earlier this year.
  • Our adjusted gross margin was 84% during the quarter, up from 82% last year. The improvement primarily reflects the reduction in ticket substitution and replacement costs.
  • On the profitability front, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $67 million, representing 14% of revenue, up 21% compared to $56 million, or 13% of revenue, in the same period last year.

Bear points

  • the transition has reduced conversion rates as customers adjusted to the new pricing format.
  • we made the strategic decision to further invest in market share expansion in part through a reduction in take rates resulting in our revenue as a percentage of GMS declining slightly to 19% this period compared to 20% in the prior year period.
  • we experienced a reduction in inventory revenue as we strategically phased out the use of minimum guarantees for direct issuance sellers.
Read full transcript analysis ›