The case for & against
Bull & Bear analysis
Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEMP) is a leading genomics company specializing in advanced diagnostics and data analytics focused primarily on oncology. The firm offers proprietary data-driven insights, leveraging next-generation sequencing (NGS) and artificial intelligence (AI) to improve clinical decision-making. Tempus positions itself as a key player in precision medicine, tapping into a growing market with significant opportunities in genomic testing, particularly following its acquisition of Ambri, aimed at enhancing its offering in minimal residual disease (MRD) testing and expanding its influence in oncology diagnostics.
Bull says
- ↑Q2 2026 revenue $382.5M (+22% YoY); data segment up 28% to $93.2M
- ↑Adjusted EBITDA $8M vs –$5.6M YoY; targeting positive free cash flow by year-end
- ↑Acquired Personalis to boost MRD test adoption in a $20B oncology diagnostics market
- ↑Data-licensing backlog exceeds $1.1B via multi-year pharma deals, enhancing revenue visibility
- ↑FDA clearance of XTCDX test to lift ASPs by $200/year, adding ~$85M from 2027
- ↑Strong growth and revisions momentum; high liquidity supports continued investment
Bear says
- ↓Earnings yield negative at –0.15 and book-to-price score –0.27, valuation remains rich
- ↓Stock volatility at 4.69 and short interest 2.57 signal significant price swings and skepticism
- ↓Profitability factors weak (negative score); inconsistent margins hamper long-term returns
- ↓Issued convertible notes, suggesting higher leverage risk and potential strain on operations
- ↓Intense competition from Guardant, Illumina and Natera may pressure pricing and share
- ↓MRD testing hype may be overblown; FDA delays could defer the projected $85M uplift
Investment themes with TEM
Stocks with highest short interest
Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance
Transcript signals
Bull points
- Revenue increased 89.6% to $314.6 million. Genomics revenue increased 115% to $241.8 million.
- Quarterly gross profit was $195 million, roughly 160% increase.
- We increased our full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $1.26 billion and maintained our adjusted EBITDA forecast of about $5 million for the year, which would be a roughly $110 million improvement over last year.
Bear points
- as the business is growing, we continue to be disappointed about the investments we're making.
- our clinical trial matching business, in large part because you know, if we help people enroll 10 or 15% of their U.S. trial, it might be 10 patients or 20 patients or 30 patients or five patients or whatever. And so it's just not a huge dollar driver at the present moment.
- and we just lost a huge body of customers that in 2022 were flush with cash because they all went public.