The case for & against
Bull & Bear analysis
Bullish
Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: TC) is a leading online travel agency (OTA) in China that specializes in providing comprehensive travel-related services, including accommodation bookings, transportation services, and hotel management. The company operates within the rapidly growing Chinese travel market, positioning itself to capitalize on the rise of experiential travel preferences and technological advancements, particularly through AI integration. Its strategic focus on customer experience and operational efficiency sets it apart in a competitive landscape.
Bull says
- ↑Q1 revenue RMB 5bn up 14.4% YoY; adjusted net profit RMB 941m up 19.4%
- ↑Core OTA revenue RMB 4.4bn up 17.3% YoY, driven by quality travel demand
- ↑Daily active users 4m (+60% YoY); annual paying users 254m (+10% YoY)
- ↑Wanda Hotel Management deal expands hotel segment to 3,200+ properties
- ↑Launched DeepTrip AI planner for personalized itineraries and higher retention
- ↑Strong profitability, attractive earnings yield, positive momentum, low volatility
Bear says
- ↓Air passenger volume fell 5–6% YoY amid geopolitical tensions
- ↓Train ticket revenue contribution dropped from ~35% to under 20%
- ↓Heavy reliance on domestic market recovery risks earnings if slowdown occurs
- ↓Intense OTA competition from Trip.com, Booking and Ctrip pressures margins
- ↓AI integration may lag if user adoption falls short of expectations
- ↓Elevated leverage and negative free cash flow/EV signal financial strain
Earnings Call · Q1 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance
Updated 06-10-2026bullish
Transcript signals
Bull points
- We reported a net revenue of RMB 4.4 billion, representing a 13.2% year-over-year increase from the same period of 2024.
- Thanks to our effective marketing investments and enhanced operational efficiency, we achieved a remarkable adjusted net profit of around 788 million, representing a 41.1% year-over-year growth with an adjusted net margin of 18% compared with margin of 14.4% in the same period of 2024.
- Our accommodation reservation business achieved RMB $1.2 billion for the first quarter of 2025, representing a 23.3% increase from the same period in 2024.
Bear points
- Our tourism visits achieved a revenue of RMB 585 million representing a 11.8% decrease from the same period in 2024. This decline was mainly driven by our optimization of risk management through the reduction of pre-purchase visits, which represents GMV as revenue. Additionally, safety concerns regarding Southeast Asia regions also negatively impacted the performance of our tourism business.
- Currently, the revenue from our airborne air ticketing business accounts for over 5% of our total transportation ticketing revenues.
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