The case for & against
Bull & Bear analysis
TC Energy Corporation (NYSE: TRP) is a leading energy infrastructure company operating across North America, primarily focused on natural gas transmission, power generation, and nuclear operations. The company benefits from strategic positioning in key markets, enabling it to capitalize on robust demand dynamics, particularly in the natural gas sector, driven by structural growth in LNG exports and power generation. Despite some recent struggles with dividend coverage amid a stretched balance sheet, TC Energy remains committed to expanding its infrastructure to meet rising energy demands, making it a central player in the evolving energy landscape.
Bull says
- ↑CA$3B comparable EBITDA in Q2 2026, up 12% YoY.
- ↑CA$20B backlog with CA$3B of projects sanctioned in 2026.
- ↑North America gas demand to reach ~51 BCF/day by 2035.
- ↑CA$0.8775 quarterly dividend yield at 0.28%, consistent growth.
- ↑High profitability and positive momentum factors with low volatility.
- ↑Disciplined capex approach supports manageable growth spending.
Bear says
- ↓Peak leverage risk of about CA$4.9B raises liquidity concerns.
- ↓Negative earnings yield and downward revisions signal weak returns.
- ↓3.3% stock drop in two weeks highlights investor skepticism.
- ↓Regulatory uncertainty may delay key project approvals.
- ↓Projected CA$8.5B capex could strain margins and dividend coverage.
- ↓Negative fundamental factors (leverage, yield, growth) temper outlook.
Investment themes with TRP
Midstream infrastructure transporting and storing hydrocarbons
Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance
Transcript signals
Bull points
- Bill C-5 is definitely a positive from our perspective, and we believe there is enormous potential for Canada to be the largest exporter of LNG to Asia, which could create up to $75 billion incremental GDP for the country.
- Bill C-5 is definitely a positive from our perspective.
- we've seen an increase in our long-term forecast of natural gas demand growth out to 2035 from 40 BC at the day to 45.
Bear points
- doubling of throughput capacity on CGL.
- We're nearing the final throws of doing that, and that will be factored into their assessment on their own timeline.
- it's getting harder and harder to contemplate having projects with meaningful spend even in 2027, given the fact that we're in July of 2025 already.