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/UPBD
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Upbound Group Inc

Upbound Group Inc

UPBD
$18.67USD↓-0.69%-0.13 today

MARKET CAP

1.1B

P/E (TTM)

13.1x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$18 – $19

52W RANGE

$16
$28

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

UPBD remains in a medium-term downtrend with sequential lower highs and lower lows beneath declining EMAs, reinforced by a recent breakdown below short-term support on elevated volume. Long-term bias is bearish as price trades below the 200-day SMA and well under its 52-week high. Short-term momentum favors further downside, with RSI below neutral and a collapsing options score. Execution targets continuation participation into the next support zone near the recent lows. Key risks include a reactive oversold bounce from extreme OS conditions and potential support around $18.30.

  • ↑Earnings yield of 2.61% signals strong valuation relative to peers.
  • ↑Bridget segment grew revenue 37% YoY to $71M, reaching 1.7M users.
  • ↓Credit tightening drove 11% YoY GMV decline, limiting top-line growth.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Upbound Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPBD) is a prominent player in the financial services sector, focusing on providing innovative leasing, financing, and consumer-oriented financial solutions through its brands, including Bridget and Rent-A-Center. Positioned to serve financially underserved consumers, Upbound navigates a challenging macroeconomic landscape characterized by elevated inflation and tight consumer spending, all while leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and drive operational efficiency.

Bull says

  • ↑Earnings yield of 2.61% signals strong valuation relative to peers.
  • ↑Bridget segment grew revenue 37% YoY to $71M, reaching 1.7M users.
  • ↑Free cash flow forecast raised to $250M by 2026 boosts flexibility.
  • ↑Integrating AI across platforms to enhance engagement and operational efficiency.
  • ↑Q2 free cash flow turned positive at $84M vs –$10M YoY.
  • ↑Solid debt management indicated by high leverage score.

Bear says

  • ↓Credit tightening drove 11% YoY GMV decline, limiting top-line growth.
  • ↓Q2 revenue increased just 0.8% YoY to $1.2B under economic strain.
  • ↓Adjusted EBITDA fell to $127M, hit by higher marketing expenses.
  • ↓Recent $13M fraud losses highlight cybersecurity and operational risks.
  • ↓High volatility score and negative revisions reflect bearish sentiment.
  • ↓Deeply negative growth factor suggests weak prospects for expansion.

Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-05-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • ASEMA delivered 16%-over-year GMV growth in the second quarter, another strong result since last year's second quarter, GMV grew at 21%. Together, that's 37% GMV growth on a stacked two-year basis.
  • ASEMA revenues grew 12%-over-year, which was the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, and adjusted EBITDA was up 15% from a year ago.
  • Bridget continues to thrive with nearly 40% revenue growth powered by another quarter of over 20% growth in subscribers versus the second quarter of 2024.

Bear points

  • At Renna Center, same-source sales declined by 4% in the quarter, consistent with our expectations as a result of tactical decisions we made in the fourth quarter that we discussed on our last call.
  • The net advanced loss rate of .6% came in relatively flat sequentially from .5% from the first full quarter and 20 basis points higher from a year ago period.
  • At Renna Center, same-source sales declined by 4% in the quarter, consistent with our expectations as a result of tactical decisions we made in the fourth quarter that we discussed on our last call.
Read full transcript analysis ›