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Vistra Corp

Vistra Corp

VST
$163.38USD↓-3.31%-5.60 today

MARKET CAP

55.1B

P/E (TTM)

27.8x

FWD P/E

16.3x

DAY RANGE

$162 – $170

52W RANGE

$133
$220

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

VST is in a Stage 2 advancing phase with medium-term bullish structure confirmed by a momentum breakout and a clear higher-high/higher-low sequence above rising EMAs and the 50 DMA. However, price is extended and overbought, trading significantly above key moving averages, which mutes immediate execution readiness. Patience is advised to await a shallow pullback into the rising 9/21 EMA zone or near the 50 DMA for better entry conditions.

  • ↑Q1’26 adjusted EBITDA of $1.5B (+20% YoY) underscores operational efficiency.
  • ↑Acquired 5,500 MW Cogentrix portfolio to boost generation capacity and demand coverage.
  • ↓Negative book-to-price warns of overvaluation against net asset values.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) is a leading integrated energy company focused on electricity generation and retail energy sales, operating a diverse portfolio that includes natural gas, nuclear, and renewable energy sources. The company's strategic positioning allows it to capitalize on growing electricity demands, driven by significant investments in infrastructure and customer-centric energy solutions. Vistra is at the forefront of the trend towards sustainable energy solutions in response to rising energy consumption, particularly amid the surge in demand from data centers and advancements in artificial intelligence.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1’26 adjusted EBITDA of $1.5B (+20% YoY) underscores operational efficiency.
  • ↑Acquired 5,500 MW Cogentrix portfolio to boost generation capacity and demand coverage.
  • ↑Committed ~$3B to buybacks and dividends, backed by >$10B FCF through 2027.
  • ↑High profitability and strong earnings yield support stable cash flows.
  • ↑0.63% dividend yield and robust institutional ownership signal confidence.
  • ↑Annual load growth of 5–6% expected through 2030 from data‐center demand.

Bear says

  • ↓Negative book-to-price warns of overvaluation against net asset values.
  • ↓Leverage remains elevated, limiting flexibility if rates rise or markets weaken.
  • ↓Integration of 5,500 MW Cogentrix portfolio faces execution and synergy risks.
  • ↓Regulatory uncertainty around SB6 may disrupt contract terms and pricing.
  • ↓Volatile power and commodity markets could drive unpredictable earnings swings.
  • ↓Low short interest suggests limited bearish conviction, reducing contrarian hedges.

Investment themes with VST

High Beta↓ -0.12%

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Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-08-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Vistra delivered $1,494,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2026, up approximately 20% from the same quarter last year, and up nearly 85% from Q1 2024.
  • Generation, which delivered $1,426,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, benefited from strong realized revenue across the fleet higher capacity revenues in PJM, and the contribution from the assets we acquired in late 2025 from Lotus.
  • we see multiple additional opportunities to further expand and stabilize our earnings potential.

Bear points

  • i would say have debatable returns unless you can get a really long contract with an off taker for it and reduce your market exposure
  • continues to benefit from strong counts and margins, partially offsetting extremely mild weather in ERCOT.
  • It is important to note that we expected a year-over-year decline in the first quarter results for retail, and we continue to project retail's full-year performance to moderate from the record result last year.
Read full transcript analysis ›