Alcoa Corp

AA exhibits a bearish medium-term posture in a presumed Stage 4 distribution, with price below declining EMAs and resistance at 9/20 EMAs. The long-term downtrend remains intact, reinforced by a substantial drop from the 52-week high and price under the 200-day SMA. Short-term consolidation at the $48.26 support zone lacks a decisive breakdown or recovery, and momentum indicators show limited downside exhaustion. Given the unfavorable timing and pending support break, deferred bearish execution is preferred.

• ↑Revenue up 24% YoY to $4B, driven by higher metal prices.
• ↑Gallium facility at Wagerup to produce 100 t/year, diversifies revenue.
• ↓Alumina output guidance lowered to 9.5–9.6 Mt amid Pinjar disruptions.