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Aflac Inc

Aflac Inc

AFL
$114.74USD↓-0.36%-0.42 today

MARKET CAP

57.5B

P/E (TTM)

16.8x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$114 – $115

52W RANGE

$105
$130

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

AFL has just broken decisively below the ~$116 support zone on elevated volume, signaling that sellers dominate and buyers are unable to absorb supply. Price remains extended below the 9EMA and 20EMA and is testing the rising 200DMA, reinforcing a bearish medium-term stance. Short-term conditions lack a clear bounce, so execution is deferred until a pullback into the broken support area around 116–118 turns into resistance. A trim of existing positions on rallies into that zone is recommended.

  • ↑Revenue of $4.22B vs. $4.11B estimate; adjusted EPS $1.75
  • ↑Returned $1.3B via dividends and buybacks; 43rd straight dividend hike
  • ↓Japan segment sales fell 5.6% YoY to ¥11B in Q2
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Aflac Incorporated (NYSE: AFL) is a leading provider of supplemental health and life insurance in the U.S. and Japan. The company operates in two of the most lucrative insurance markets globally, offering products like cancer and medical insurance, as well as group voluntary benefits. Despite facing challenges in Japan, such as declining premiums, Aflac remains committed to its growth strategy, focusing on innovative products like the Sumitas and Onshin Pallet medical insurance to capture younger demographics.

Bull says

  • ↑Revenue of $4.22B vs. $4.11B estimate; adjusted EPS $1.75
  • ↑Returned $1.3B via dividends and buybacks; 43rd straight dividend hike
  • ↑Premium persistency at 79.4% in US and 92.7% in Japan
  • ↑Group voluntary benefits sales up 7.1%, led by dental and vision
  • ↑Low leverage (0.18) and 226% solvency ratio bolster balance sheet
  • ↑High earnings and dividend yields with low share volatility

Bear says

  • ↓Japan segment sales fell 5.6% YoY to ¥11B in Q2
  • ↓Negative growth momentum; analyst EPS revisions trail expectations
  • ↓Insider selling of $1.7M by Japan Post raises confidence concerns
  • ↓Elevated lapse rates on new products risk persistency
  • ↓P/E at 12.6 vs. fair value $117.71 suggests ~3% overvaluation
  • ↓Weak growth, negative revisions, and low institutional interest imply downside

Investment themes with AFL

High Dividend Yield↓ -0.51%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM
Buybacks↓ -0.29%

Companies repurchasing their own shares

C · JCI · WFC
Quality↓ -0.56%

Companies with strong fundamentals and stability

NVDA · AAPL · MSFT
L&H Insurance↓ -0.09%

PGR · TRV · ALL

Earnings Call · Q4 2023 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 04-20-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We're not pleased where we sit with the expense ratio. That is absolutely a focus for the U.S. And one of the things we're doing is making sure we have plans that are going to continue to bend that curve. And you'll see that happening over a period of time. And we're basically challenging all of the U.S. leadership to be accountable for that.
  • Net earnings per diluted share for 2023 were $7.78. Adjusted earnings per diluted share was $6.23. We're the best in the company's history, despite the weakening yen and the impact of the reinsurance retrocession late in the fourth quarter.
  • 10.9% year-over-year increase in sales, which was largely driven by a 26% increase in cancer insurance sales

Bear points

  • So we're always going to see that mixed impact impacting both expense ratios and benefit ratios going forward. And that will have a slightly negative impact to the pre-tax margin going forward because of mixed.
  • total adjusted revenues declined 3.6% to nearly 1.5 trillion yen, largely reflecting the impacts of reinsurance and paid-up policies.
  • Aflac US sales increased 5% in 2023, which was at the lower end of our expectations.
Read full transcript analysis ›