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Ardagh Metal Packaging SA

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA

AMBP
$4.84USD↑+0.62%+0.03 today

MARKET CAP

2.9B

P/E (TTM)

—

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$5 – $5

52W RANGE

$3
$5

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

Despite clear seller fatigue indicated by the bearish exhaustion candle at the recent lows, the medium-term structure remains corrective with downward-sloping EMAs. Execution should be deferred to any bounce into the broken short-term EMA zone and former support levels for a rejection-based trim. The long-term uptrend above the 200-day SMA remains intact, anchoring structural strength and allowing for controlled selling on rallies.

  • ↑Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA rose 10% YoY to $166 M, beating $147–162 M guidance
  • ↑2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $750–775 M, signaling management confidence
  • ↓Profitability conversion remains weak, pressuring long-term margins
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (Ticker: AMBP) is a leading player in the global metal packaging industry, specializing in the production of beverage cans and packaging solutions tailored to various beverage categories. The company operates primarily in North America and Europe, capitalizing on the growing demand for sustainable packaging options. As a member of RDAG Group SA, AMP focuses on aligning with environmental trends and enhancing operational efficiencies in its manufacturing processes.

Bull says

  • ↑Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA rose 10% YoY to $166 M, beating $147–162 M guidance
  • ↑2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $750–775 M, signaling management confidence
  • ↑Q1 2026 EBITDA jumped 15% YoY to $179 M; North American revenue up 19% to $879 M
  • ↑Dividend yield ~1.91% offers stable income amid market volatility
  • ↑$200 M capex planned for 2026 to expand capacity in Spain and UK
  • ↑High earnings yield and manageable leverage support upside potential

Bear says

  • ↓Profitability conversion remains weak, pressuring long-term margins
  • ↓Aluminum and energy cost inflation expected to further erode profits
  • ↓North American shipments down 5% in Q1; contract resets may soften volumes
  • ↓Supply-chain disruptions to persist into Q2, per management commentary
  • ↓Net leverage ratio of 5.7× raises solvency concerns amid rising rates
  • ↓Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties add volatility to operations

Investment themes with AMBP

High Dividend Yield↓ -0.51%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM

Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-14-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • revenue of $2.5 billion was 4% higher than the same period last year on a constant currency basis, reflecting higher shipments in metal packaging, partly offset by lower revenue in glass packaging.
  • Second quarter global beverage can shipments increased by 5% in the quarter compared to the same period last year, led by growth in the Americas of 8%, where shipments rose by 8% in North America and by 12% in Brazil.
  • AAP's adjusted EBITDA increased by 16% to $210 million compared to the same period last year, and exceeded its guided $195 to $205 million.

Bear points

  • lower shipments in Europe and Africa and the pass-through of lower input costs, mainly energy, in Europe.
  • Global glass packaging shipments in the quarter were 5% lower than the same period last year, reflecting relatively soft shipments in Europe and Africa, as well as footprint adjustments and commercial actions in our North American business over the last two years.
  • Revenue of $638 million in Europe and Africa was 11% lower than the same period last year. Large shipments were 6% lower than the prior year. In Europe, most markets other than the UK saw a reduction in year-on-year demand. By end market, growth in spirits was more than offset by lower volumes in most other categories, notably beer.
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