Ardagh Metal Packaging SA

Despite clear seller fatigue indicated by the bearish exhaustion candle at the recent lows, the medium-term structure remains corrective with downward-sloping EMAs. Execution should be deferred to any bounce into the broken short-term EMA zone and former support levels for a rejection-based trim. The long-term uptrend above the 200-day SMA remains intact, anchoring structural strength and allowing for controlled selling on rallies.

• ↑Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA rose 10% YoY to $166 M, beating $147–162 M guidance
• ↑2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $750–775 M, signaling management confidence
• ↓Profitability conversion remains weak, pressuring long-term margins