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Amerisafe Inc

Amerisafe Inc

AMSF
$24.77USD↑+0.45%+0.11 today

MARKET CAP

459.1M

P/E (TTM)

10.2x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$24 – $25

52W RANGE

$24
$45

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

AMSF has broken above its near-term EMAs and the 50-day SMA, showing short-term momentum but remains in a broader Stage 3 downtrend. This extended rally has created a sellable zone near resistance, aligning with a medium-term bearish tradable side and an intact long-term downtrend. Execution now favors selling into strength rather than adding, with attention on potential exhaustion and reversal around current levels.

  • ↑Net premiums earned rose 11.4% YoY to $77.3 M
  • ↑ROAE remains robust at 23.5%, showcasing capital efficiency
  • ↓Workers’ comp market softening with rate cuts and more competition
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Amerisafe, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMSF) specializes in providing workers' compensation insurance specifically for high-hazard industries across the United States. The company is recognized for its solid underwriting discipline and strategic pricing, allowing it to maintain robust profit margins in a competitive landscape. The recent focus on retaining strong customer relationships and adapting to regulatory changes positions Amerisafe as a key player in the workers' compensation space, but it faces challenges from a softening market.

Bull says

  • ↑Net premiums earned rose 11.4% YoY to $77.3 M
  • ↑ROAE remains robust at 23.5%, showcasing capital efficiency
  • ↑Renewal retention over 93%; audit premiums climbed to $4.1 M
  • ↑Dividend yield of 1.37% and share buybacks of ~181 K shares
  • ↑Book-to-price ~0.98 and high earnings yield suggest undervaluation
  • ↑Low stock volatility and positive interest-rate sensitivity support stability

Bear says

  • ↓Workers’ comp market softening with rate cuts and more competition
  • ↓Rising medical inflation and severities weigh on underwriting profits
  • ↓Negative growth and revision trends risk revenue stagnation
  • ↓High short interest signals investor skepticism on outlook
  • ↓Leverage and profitability pressures pose financial health concerns
  • ↓Larger insurers’ expansion threatens Amerisafe’s niche positioning

Investment themes with AMSF

L&H Insurance↓ -0.09%

PGR · TRV · ALL

Earnings Call · Q1 2024 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 04-30-2025bearish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • So in that regard, we did see new business increase in the quarter, which we were happy to see. Even though renewals remaining strong in this rate environment, when you look at the premium dollars, there's certainly pressure there. So we were able to grow policy count because of some of the new business efforts that we have.
  • So in that regard, we did see new business increase in the quarter, which we were happy to see. Even though renewals remaining strong in this rate environment, when you look at the premium dollars, there's certainly pressure there. So we were able to grow policy count because of some of the new business efforts that we have.

Bear points

  • Workers' compensation rates across the industry continued to decline in the first quarter, spurred by favorable frequency trends and modest increases in severity.
  • I do think we're going to continue to see wage pressure from our insurers, which should in turn be wage growth for us, but maybe not to the same degree that we were starting.
  • I do think we're going to continue to see wage pressure from our insurers, which should in turn be wage growth for us, but maybe not to the same degree that we were starting.
Read full transcript analysis ›