Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc

BXMT’s Post-Capitulation cluster shows selling exhaustion and sets up a tactical mean-reversion entry. Medium-term bias is bullish via mean-reversion eligibility, but short-term timing is unfavorable due to rejection at the 20-day EMA. We will stalk for a pullback into the $13.35–$13.00 support zone and look for clear absorption and reclaim of the 20-day EMA before buying, while a decisive close below the early-August capitulation low on expanding volume invalidates the setup.

• ↑Dividend yield of 3.66% fully covered by $0.31 distributable EPS
• ↑Office exposure cut from 36% to 21%; multifamily & industrial assets now ~50%
• ↓High leverage ratio elevates refinancing risk amid rising rates