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Cheesecake Factory Inc

Cheesecake Factory Inc

CAKE
$102.70USD↑+1.52%+1.54 today

MARKET CAP

5.1B

P/E (TTM)

30.0x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$100 – $103

52W RANGE

$43
$118

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

CAKE is in a Stage 4 declining phase after breaking key support around the August low near ~102, forming a clear lower-highs/lower-lows sequence and confirming medium-term bearish structure while the long-term uptrend remains intact above the 200-day SMA. Short-term timing shows price being rejected at the declining 9-/20-day EMAs with sustained selling pressure, warranting a Sell Now approach on rallies into the EMA zone. Key risks include the 50-day SMA around ~99 absorbing selling interest and oversold RSI prompting relief bounces that could delay further declines.

  • ↑Q2 revenue $1B (+7% YoY); targeting ~$4B in fiscal 2026 sales.
  • ↑Comparable sales grew 5.8% in Q2, signaling strong demand.
  • ↓Negative earnings yield and high P/E point to overvaluation.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ: CAKE) is a prominent player in the casual dining segment, known for its extensive and innovative menu that features over 250 items, including its famous cheesecakes. The company operates multiple brands, including the flagship Cheesecake Factory, Flower Child, and North Italia, positioning itself strategically to capture diverse dining preferences. With its focus on culinary innovation, operational excellence, and customer engagement, the company aims to expand its market share amidst competitive pressures.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 revenue $1B (+7% YoY); targeting ~$4B in fiscal 2026 sales.
  • ↑Comparable sales grew 5.8% in Q2, signaling strong demand.
  • ↑Restaurant‐level profit margin expanded to 20%, driven by cost controls.
  • ↑“Bites and bowls” menu plus Rewards app spurred foot traffic.
  • ↑Q2 EPS $1.44 (+24% YoY), reflecting robust profitability.
  • ↑Strong liquidity, low volatility, ~0.5% dividend yield, positive analyst revisions.

Bear says

  • ↓Negative earnings yield and high P/E point to overvaluation.
  • ↓Q4 same-store sales declined 2.2% as competitors ramp up.
  • ↓Inflation and economic headwinds risk curbing discretionary spending.
  • ↓North Italia sales dropped, showing uneven brand performance.
  • ↓Elevated share price raises correction risk if growth disappoints.
  • ↓Weak growth momentum, flat profitability factors, modest short interest add caution.

Investment themes with CAKE

High Dividend Yield↓ -0.51%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM

Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-25-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Total revenues of $956 million and adjusted net income margin of 5.8 percent both exceeded the high end of the guidance ranges we provided.
  • Second quarter total sales at the Cheesecake Factory restaurants were $683.3 million, up 1% from the prior year.
  • Total sales for North Italia were $90.8 million, up 20% from the prior year period.

Bear points

  • We are modeling net total labor inflation of low to mid single digits when factoring in the latest trends in wage rates and minimum wage increases, as well as other components of labor.
  • Traffic was a negative 1.1.
  • We do anticipate with the value that we're putting on the menu that we might continue to see that level of mix continue, but we're really focused on getting that traffic back to the positive side of the ledger.
Read full transcript analysis ›