Lumida
/HGV
⌘K
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc

HGV
$39.47USD↑+0.69%+0.27 today

MARKET CAP

3.1B

P/E (TTM)

21.3x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$39 – $40

52W RANGE

$37
$55

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

HGV has broken key support and remains below all major moving averages, confirming a medium-term downtrend reinforced by an active Support Failure pattern. While extreme oversold conditions caution against immediate selling at current lows, the medium-term bias stays bearish. We will defer execution, trimming positions into rallies toward former support around the $41 level and near the 9/20 EMA and 50 EMA, consistent with the Free Cash Flow + Buybacks strategy.

  • ↑Earnings yield of 1.77 indicates strong value potential
  • ↑HEV MAX memberships grew 35% YoY, boosting customer pipeline
  • ↓Contract sales fell 3% to $810 M, signaling moderating demand
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Hilton Grand Vacations (NYSE: HGV) is a leading company in the timeshare and vacation ownership industry, specializing in developing, marketing, and managing resort properties. Leveraging strong affiliations with the Hilton brand, HGV utilizes its market presence to offer innovative vacation experiences, particularly through its HEV MAX membership program. The company is positioned favorably within the leisure travel market, even amidst competitive pressures and economic fluctuations.

Bull says

  • ↑Earnings yield of 1.77 indicates strong value potential
  • ↑HEV MAX memberships grew 35% YoY, boosting customer pipeline
  • ↑$600 M in share buybacks shows commitment to returns
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA guidance set at $1.225–1.265 B for the year
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA rose 5% to $293 M, demonstrating operational efficiency
  • ↑Institutional ownership strong with a high 13F ownership score

Bear says

  • ↓Contract sales fell 3% to $810 M, signaling moderating demand
  • ↓Management admitted sales execution has underperformed in key markets
  • ↓Leverage ratio elevated, increasing risk amid rising interest rates
  • ↓Negative profitability factors raise concerns over sustainable returns
  • ↓Geopolitical tensions and rate hikes may weaken leisure travel demand
  • ↓High debt and share buybacks heighten risk in a volatile market

Investment themes with HGV

Buybacks↓ -0.29%

Companies repurchasing their own shares

C · JCI · WFC

Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-18-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • our pipeline, our new buyer pipeline was up 10%. We sold 200,000 packages in the quarter. And we also saw great progress around activation. So the momentum really is looking good around new buyers.
  • executed on our first securitization of Japanese receivables with 9.5 billion yen issuance at an attractive 1.41% borrowing rate.
  • contract sales were $834 million, up 10% versus the prior year. New buyers represented 28% of our contract sales during the quarter, improving sequentially from the first quarter by 300 basis points.

Bear points

  • visitations are down, right? And some of the pressure for Amas is just the promotional activity that's coming from, you know, the mainly casino operators, right?
  • while we expect the provision rate to build throughout the year, given the current operating environment and seasonal trends, we still expect all-in provision in the mid-teens for the full year, consistent with our previous guidance.
Read full transcript analysis ›