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/HLMN
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Hillman Solutions Corp

Hillman Solutions Corp

HLMN
$6.98USD↑+0.00%+0.00 today

MARKET CAP

1.4B

P/E (TTM)

38.8x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$7 – $7

52W RANGE

$7
$11

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

The downtrend remains structurally intact after the decisive support failure, with price extended below key EMAs and elevated selling volume confirming bearish momentum. Primary support around the mid 7’s has flipped to resistance, making rallies into that zone optimal sell opportunities. Medium-term bias is firmly bearish under Stage 4 continuation, and oversold conditions have so far failed to produce a meaningful bounce. We recommend immediate sell-side engagement on any upticks into the broken support cluster.

  • ↑Q4 2025 net sales $1.552B (+5.4% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA $275.3M (+13.9%)
  • ↑Cambridge acquisition adds ~$15M sales and targets a $3B pro distribution market
  • ↓Existing home sales (~4.06M) below 5M avg, limiting hardware demand
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ: HLMN) is a leading provider of hardware-related products, specializing in fasteners and protective gear, primarily for DIY consumers and professional markets. Founded in 1964, Hillman has built a strong competitive advantage through a comprehensive distribution network and customer service model focused on direct-to-store delivery. The company plays a significant role in the home improvement sector and maintains a diverse product portfolio that positions it well amid current economic conditions.

Bull says

  • ↑Q4 2025 net sales $1.552B (+5.4% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA $275.3M (+13.9%)
  • ↑Cambridge acquisition adds ~$15M sales and targets a $3B pro distribution market
  • ↑$100M share repurchase underway; low leverage enables shareholder returns
  • ↑Adjusted gross margin 47.1% despite tariffs, showing pricing resilience
  • ↑Pro channel sales $370.1M in Q1 2026 (+3% YoY) diversifying revenue mix
  • ↑High earnings yield and strong book-to-price ratio suggest valuation upside

Bear says

  • ↓Existing home sales (~4.06M) below 5M avg, limiting hardware demand
  • ↓Tariffs add ~$150M in costs annually, weighing on gross margins
  • ↓Profit conversion remains weak despite revenue growth, hindering EPS gains
  • ↓Retail foot traffic declines and cautious consumers may suppress sales
  • ↓Analyst consensus Hold; $12.67 target implies only ~63% upside
  • ↓Cambridge integration and macro uncertainties pose execution risks

Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 09-01-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Net sales in the second quarter of 2025 totaled $402.8 million, an increase of 0.2% versus the prior year quarter.
  • For the quarter, net cash provided by operating activities was $28.7 million and we generated $31.2 million of free cash flow even with a $32.5 million cash headwind from tariffs.
  • we ended the second quarter of 2025 with $674.7 million of total net debt outstanding which decreased by $29 million from the end of the quarter.

Bear points

  • we are not immune to declining foot traffic at our retail partners and a consumer watching their spending.
  • Our top and bottom line guides contemplate a volume decline which we believe is a prudent outlook for the year considering existing home sales are projected to remain flat.
  • Net sales in our Canadian business were down .6% compared to the prior year quarter.
Read full transcript analysis ›