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/SAFE
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Safehold Inc

Safehold Inc

SAFE
$14.03USD↓-2.30%-0.33 today

MARKET CAP

993.6M

P/E (TTM)

8.7x

FWD P/E

8.4x

DAY RANGE

$14 – $15

52W RANGE

$13
$17

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

SAFE sits in a Stage 4 downtrend below all major EMAs, with a recent support failure on heavy volume. However, extreme oversold conditions have triggered mean‐reversion eligibility, forcing a tactical bullish medium‐term bias only. Short‐term momentum remains bearish, so execution is deferred until price offers a pullback into broken support or EMAs for a measured long entry. This balances the secular downtrend with a countertrend bounce opportunity.

  • ↑Q2 2025 revenue reached $114.6M (+14.3% YoY) and net income was $30.2M (+11.7%).
  • ↑Ground lease portfolio valued at $7.3B with $9.8B in unrealized capital appreciation.
  • ↓Profitability under pressure and Park Hotel litigation risks future cash flows.
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Safehold Inc. (NYSE: SAFE) operates in the ground lease sector, positioning itself as a prominent entity by establishing a portfolio of high-quality ground leases across major markets in the United States. Specializing in affordable housing and multifamily developments, Safehold is strategically focused on capturing value in dense metropolitan areas while navigating regulatory challenges. The company's innovative approach aims to modernize ground lease agreements to unlock property value, effectively addressing the growing demand for affordable housing amidst evolving market dynamics.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 2025 revenue reached $114.6M (+14.3% YoY) and net income was $30.2M (+11.7%).
  • ↑Ground lease portfolio valued at $7.3B with $9.8B in unrealized capital appreciation.
  • ↑Repurchased ~850K shares at $15.17, bolstering shareholder value.
  • ↑Launched SafeSwap to modernize ground leases and drive customer engagement.
  • ↑Strong earnings yield, high book-to-price ratio, and solid QS score support valuation.
  • ↑Favorable affordable housing demand in CA/TX and supportive regulations bolster growth.

Bear says

  • ↓Profitability under pressure and Park Hotel litigation risks future cash flows.
  • ↓Exposure to rising interest rates could increase borrowing costs and compress margins.
  • ↓Negative momentum and Hold consensus cap near-term upside (~22.6% to $17.17 target).
  • ↓Low hedge fund ownership and rising short interest signal investor skepticism.
  • ↓Debt of $5.0B (D/E 2.0x) and $1.4B liquidity pose leverage and funding risks.
  • ↓Negative growth revisions and tight liquidity underscore caution until market improves.

Investment themes with SAFE

Others↑ +0.32%

Miscellaneous or uncategorized companies

ATAI · SVIX · SVXY

Earnings Call · Q1 2024 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-04-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We like the long-term dynamics in the sector and we'll continue to innovate to penetrate a larger slice of this market.
  • we've begun to see some progress on that front with our first non-California deal closing this quarter and others in the pipeline.
  • We provided a framework for preliminary approval subject to certain conditions, including the tenant complying with their obligations under our lease.

Bear points

  • the tenant has repeatedly failed to pay property taxes as required under the ground lease.
  • If we're unable to reach a resolution, which starts with the tenant unconditionally paying the required taxes, we will be forced to exercise our rights under the lease.
  • The year-over-year decrease in net income was primarily driven by two parked hotels assets transitioning from a ground lease to fee-simple ownership.
Read full transcript analysis ›